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Spotlight on Industries
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/4816/1/Spotlight-on-Industries/Page1.html
By Price Headley
Published on 07/19/2006
 
Price Headley takes a look at the soft drink, insurance, and auto manufacturers industries.

Spotlight on Industries

Although the overall market has gone nowhere (net) for the last month, there have been a few pockets of strength or weakness that could make for a decent trade. We'll highlight a few of the recently-developed industry trends here, but we'll warn you that some of them are a little off the radar. On the other hand, sometimes the more obscure the idea, the better the trade.

Soft Drinks

Although by far the most obscure group we'll be looking at today, the Dow Jones Soft Drink Index (DJUSSD) is still on an impressive run worth noting. Yesterday's close at 292.21 tops off an 8% rally off of April's lows, making these stocks some of the best performers of all in what was a particularly troubled period. Yet, the stability and consistency is what makes this industry so attractive. The index recently used the 200-day line (green) and the 50-day line (purple) as a push-off point, and it looks like the trend now has some momentum. Don't think the sector is incapable of putting up big numbers - the index gained 25 percent between 2003 and 2004.

Dow Jones Soft Drink Index (DJUSSD) - Weekly

Insurance

It doesn't really matter which segment of the insurance world the company covers - all of these stocks look like they're in deep trouble. Hurricane related? Probably, although other forces are at work too. On our chart, from top to bottom, we've plotted the Dow Jones Property Insurance Index (DJUSIP), Dow Jones Life Insurance Index (DJUSIL), and the Dow Jones Full Line Insurance Index (DJUSIF). For all three indices, we've also plotted a 200-day line (green) and a 50-day line (purple). This will let us compare apples to apples. On the other hand, while we can make the comparisons, there really isn't a lot of contrast. They all look somewhere in between slightly bearish to really bearish. In terms of momentum, the full-line insurers clearly are in a tailspin. As far as the biggest potential move, though, the life insurers appear as if they're sitting at the top of the first hill of a roller coaster. They're hanging on, but slowly (painfully) tipping over. It also helps that these stocks have the furthest to fall, having not been tested in months.

Dow Jones Property Insurance Index (DJUSIP), Dow Jones Life Insurance Index (DJUSIL), and Dow Jones Full Line Insurance Index (DJUSIF) - Weekly

Auto Manufacturers

Back in mid-June, we first discussed the idea that the car makers could finally be pulling out of their slump. The feedback was mixed, although mostly in disagreement, since the chart showed a long-term downtrend. We fully agreed that the chart looked ugly from a macro-perspective. However, we were really keying in on what had changed about the chart within the last few weeks that was different than the last few years. We've continued to follow the Dow Jones Auto Manufacturers (DJUSAU) chart, remaining slightly bullish. As of yesterday, we're pleased to report the 50-day line is above the 200-day line for the first time since mid-2004. And, if you look at the chart now, you will indeed see more higher highs and higher lows than the other way around. We still contend that the auto manufacturers could be the Cinderella story of 2006. There's no doubt the opportunity also includes a lot of risk. But, the potential reward merits it.

Dow Jones Auto Manufacturers (DJUSAU) - Weekly

Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.