GBP/JPY - GBP/JPY has broken out, shooting past the previous 213.69 high.  This price action is perfectly in line with our view that the JPY crosses are making a final thrust before heading lower.  GBP/JPY is in the 5th wave of a 5 wave bull sequence that began in September 2000 at 148.29.  The final 5th wave began in April 2004 at 189.64 and has taken on the form of an ending diagonal - a weak structure that is often followed by a rapid decline.  There is a zone above that could mark the end to the 6 year uptrend.  The area bound by the 161.8% fibo of 208.06-189.64 at 219.33 as well as the 78.6% fibo of 241.01-148.32 at 221.06 could be the turning point.  Weekly RSI is just now entering into overbought territory - where historically it has remained for a week or so before tumbling.

GBP/CHF - GBP/CHF has gone from the bottom of the year long range (near 2.2520) to the upper end range of the - gaining more than 500 pips in 2 weeks.  Daily RSI is overbought and this has preceded major turns to the downside in the range environment that has persisted for the last year.  However, there has not been a move within the range as impulsive as this during the range environment.  Also, a look at the weekly chart does indeed show a breakout from a symmetrical triangle that began in May 2003 (see chart below).  Bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly does indicate a high probability of a retracement with initial support at the 7/18 high of 2.2906.

GBP/AUD - Last week's, we remarked that  "The move may be a bit overextended as CCI is well below -100.  Today's candle (so far) has an extremely long lower wick.  If the candle closes in this manner, then a reversal to the upside is suggested."  The pair has rallied furiously but today encountered the 20 day SMA at 2.4650.  Daily oscillators are just now becoming bullish as RSI is crossing above 50.  Some consolidation in the short term is reasonable following the 500 pip rally.  Support comes in at the 7/14 high at 2.4553.  A break above the 20 day SMA exposes the 50% fibo of 2.5167-2.4239 at 2.4703.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.