German Consumer Price Index (JUL P) (-- GMT; -- EST)
                            (MoM)               (YoY)
Consensus:           0.4%                 1.9%
Previous:               0.2%                2.0%

Outlook:  A spike in oil prices and associated costs are expected to drive up the German CPI index at a faster rate in July, possibly hitting 0.4% month over month.  Year over year growth, however, may ease to 1.9% against 2.0% in June due to the spike in inflation over the same period a year ago.  Since year over year inflation compares only single months separated by a year, rather than indicating an annualized rate, the number can occasionally be misleading.  Further, the EU-harmonized rate - using the method of calculation specified by the Union - is expected to remain at 2.0%, in line with ECB targets.  European-wide inflation is above the target rate and oil prices are up 24% on the year.  In addition, money supply continues to expand at a quick pace.  The conditions appear to be in place for more rate hikes before the end of the year, with some traders betting on two hikes while the more aggressive expect three or more.  Consensus looks to a 3.50% policy rate by 2007, up from the current rate of 2.75%.

Previous:  Oil prices were the story in June as the German Consumer Price Index accelerated 0.2% from May and 2.0% from the same month a year ago.  In May, year over year inflation was at 1.9%.  Harmonized with the rest of the EU, German inflation declined from 2.1% in May to 2.0% in June.  German, Europe's largest economy, has been seeing a slower pace of price growth than the rest of the European Union, which reported a 2.5% year over year increase in June.  As the single nation comprises a bulk of the economic weighting in the Union, consistently contracting figures could drag the wider gauge down in line with the ECB's target sooner rather than later.  The European Central Bank's target rate is just under 2.0%.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:             n/a
Previous:                1.865

Outlook: The UBS measure of Swiss consumption is expected to grow further in June, although no consensus opinion on the measure is released.  A general expectation of 1.900 is anticipated before the end of 2006.  Monthly measures tend to follow the trend, so an expansion from 1.865 looks to be in the works.  Although oil prices have been high and continue to rise, unemployment has been low while enjoying consistent improvements.  The jobless rate in Switzerland hit 3.1% and many economists expect it to move lower, with strong job stability and improving consumer confidence boosting demand from domestic sources.  Although adjusted retail sales did drop 2.3% in June from the same time a year ago, real retail sales increased 0.7%, indicating actual growth.  The discrepancy was caused by the two extra shopping days this year against 2005.  The UBS measure estimates the annual rate of consumer purchasing growth, adjusted for inflation.  Last month's growth rate hit a four-year high, but that is expected to level off for the remainder of the year.

Previous:  Swiss consumption rose at the fastest rate since April 2002 last month, as the UBS indicator accelerated from 1.620 to 1.865.  Low and declining unemployment was one of the driving factors for the month consumption figure.  The jobless rate hit 3.4% and looked to drop even further.  As noted above, the indicator predicts the annual rate of growth adjusted for inflation.  May's positive numbers look to continue into the rest of the year as inflation remains in check and the Swiss National Bank looks to raise rates to curb further unwanted inflation.

New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence (MAY) (13:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)
Consensus:              n/a
Previous:               -32.2%

Outlook: The highest borrowing rate in the majors, a 10% drop in Kiwi value, surging oil and import prices, and a ballooning trade deficit all point to sustained pessimism in the New Zealand business community.  Although companies are net positive about their own stores' futures, there is a general unease surrounding the broader business community and a July reading close to June's 32.2 percent net negative number.  New Zealand has been facing a tough economic situation as interest rates currently rest at 7.25%, held in place by inflation that remains at the high end of the bank's 1.5% - 3.0% range.  The current lending rate, however, limits the options of the National Bank.  Although the forecast calls for 1.5% to 2.0% growth, economic conditions in the island nation continue to stagnate.  Consumer spending, which accounts for whopping 70% of GDP, has begun to wane as economic conditions start to decline.  So far, despite the weaker kiwi, exports have struggled to take up any of the slack, while the current account deficit has grown to 9.3% of annual GDP.

Previous:  New Zealand was "still a nation of pessimists" in the words of the National Bank's business outlook for June.  Business confidence survey returned a net 32.2 percent reading, which indicates that the number of people expecting improving business conditions was far outnumbered by those anticipating deteriorating business conditions.  The figure has improved substantially since November of 2005, when the all-time low of a negative 66.2 was hit, but the number weakened marginally from May when the reading contracted to a net negative 31.3 reading.  Ameliorating the effect somewhat was the positive 17 read in own expectations (business expectations for respondents' own stores), up from 10 in May.

US Consumer Confidence (JUL) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:            104.9
Previous:               105.7

Outlook:  July consumer confidence is forecast to decline slightly from June's surprisingly strong reading of 105.7.  Worldwide instability, rising oil prices and recent turmoil in the stock market are all expected to weigh on American's sentiment.  However, even at times of geo-political uncertainty, confidence has been high, while in apparently peaceful times the figure has dipped.  The number relies almost exclusively on the national economy rather than world events.  The recent drop in the July University of Michigan survey from 84.9 to 83.0 foreshadows the expected slowdown.  The indicator has generally correlated with direction of the Consumer Confidence report, although the two indicators have diverged as recently as April of this year when the U of M survey declined and confidence increased.  Overall, low unemployment and strong demand has stymied the expected freefall associated with $3.00 per gallon gasoline.

Previous:  Following the University of Michigan survey, US Consumer Confidence rose from 104.7 to 105.7 from May to June.  Although consumer demand has slackened somewhat, growth continues despite rising gas prices and strong job potential continues to buoy sentiment.  Rising interest rates are expected to cool the strong 5.8% GDP growth rate in the first quarter.  Second quarter growth is still expected to report a strong 3.0% increase, which should help sustain consumer confidence.

US Existing Home Sales (JUN) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:              6.60M
Previous:                 6.67M

Outlook:  June existing home sales, as compiled and released by the National Association of Realtors, have been forecast to drop from 6.58 million in June to 6.60 million for the month of July.  Putting off what some have speculated would be a burst in the 'housing bubble,' the market seems to be slowly deflating rather than popping outright.  In January, existing home sales hit 6.57 before bouncing back to 6.90 in February.  Increasing house prices have been outweighed by stronger employment and wage growth, even as gas prices weigh on disposable income.  Unsold houses on the market hit the highest level since January 1998 in May, which suggests decreasing demand and steady supply, which could drive down prices and re-stimulate the market for measured pullbacks in an overall decline.  Median price continues to rise, hovering near 225,000 for existing single-family homes.  Existing home sales has been generally less volatile than new home sales.

Previous:  Home sales, as compiled and released by the National Association of Realtors, fell in May, but at a slower pace than expected.  The indicator declined 1.2% to 6.67 million, which was the weakest level since January of this year, down from 6.75 million in April.  The economy is expected to slow as oil prices rise, interest rates increase, and foreign demand drops on global rate tightening.  As noted above, the decline in the housing market, as with the broader economy, is expected to be gradual rather than impulsive and swift.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.