New Zealand Trade Balance (JUN) (22:45 GMT; 18:45 EST)
Consensus:          -385.0M
Previous:             -103.5M

Outlook:  The monthly trade balance for New Zealand has been difficult to forecast, with the average actual reading reporting an average difference of NZ$281 million from the prediction.  Already struggling with a current account deficit that represents 9.3% of the island's gross domestic output, a broadening goods and services' trade deficit would put the nation's accounts in an even worse state.  A shortfall in June would be the second since its brief stint in positive territory and it would be well founded.   The economy is heavily dependant on its exports of manufactured and agricultural goods.  While demand behind factory goods was well founded, agricultural commodities continue to flounder.  This is particularly concerning considering the resurgence in energy prices, which was the principal driver behind the imbalance over the final three months of 2005 and the opening quarter of this year.  However, expectations for the more reliable, 12-month rolling deficit have settled on a predicted improvement for June from NZ$6.79 billion from NZ$6.91 marked in May.  Even with an improvement though, the large standing shortfall in the current account continues to weigh on the kiwi's appeal.  Some analysts believe that if the deficit stays its course, the sovereign nation's highest credit rating could be in jeopardy. 

Previous:  May's NZ$103.5 million deficit was the largest ever for that particular month.  Over the period, despite record exports, more expensive oil and aircraft parts proved too difficult to achieve.  The widening deficit affected the annualized balance, as well, with the deficit rising from NZ$ 6.883 billion to NZ$ 6.912 billion.  The rolling 12-month trade shortfall is approaching record levels.  Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said that rates will almost certainly remain at the current record-high of 7.25% as inflation, driven by rising oil and other imports and global concerns, remains a problem in the island nation.  The central bank recognizes that cutting the rate could redouble consumer spending, while rising it would slow domestic growth.  Regardless, any shift on their part could potentially worsen the trade situation, so letting the economy work its problems out may be the best route for the ailing nation.

Australian Consumer Prices (2Q) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
                            (QoQ)           (YoY)
Consensus:           1.0%           3.4%
Previous:              0.9%           3.0%

Outlook: Australia consumer prices are expected to post a 1.0% acceleration over the second quarter, which would nudge the annualized measurement to a 3.4% pace.  Stripping the measure of the volatile components in the price gauge for a 'core' read, is expected to yield 0.6% and 2.0% for the quarterly and annualized figures respectively.  The numbers could provide the final justification for the RBA to finally back up the year's earlier rate hike with another 25 basis point increase, which is already a heavily favored outcome at the coming meeting.  The substantial difference between overall and core CPI highlights the price growth in energy prices.  Without the recent major upward thrust in oil prices, Australian inflation, the recent global monetary tightening may have been a more gradual process.  Australian growth and inflation is predicted to persist for some time in the future as unemployment drops and new jobs skyrocket as mining and related jobs expand across the country. 

Previous:  Over the opening three months of the year consumer prices continued on a 0.9% quarterly pace, up from 0.5% in the final months of 2005.  The more interesting measurement was the annualized figure, which sped up to 3.0% from 2.8% the previous period.  Furthermore, over the period, there was a noticeable difference between Core inflation and inclusive inflation.  Core CPI for the first quarter showed a 0.3% increase and mild 1.7% yearly growth.  The numbers serve to further illustrate that the driving force behind the uncomfortably high inflation could largely be placed on the shoulders of petroleum products.  Australia imports almost all of its energy needs, so the continent-nation is especially vulnerable to higher prices.

German IFO Business Climate Survey (JUL) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:            106.0
Previous:               106.8

Outlook: A slight decline in the German IFO business climate survey for July is expected as rising energy prices and worldwide tensions weigh on consumer sentiment.  The drop is expected to be very mild, declining from a June reading of 106.8 to 106.0.  An unusual contribution to the decline is the prospect of the VAT, which will push up the tax rate to pay for growing health care costs, which the government has had difficulty funding with current labor and employment laws.  Breaking the overall read down, the current assessment is predicted to decline marginally from 109.4 to 109.0, while future expectations may post a more sizable drop to 102.5 from 104.2, largely due to the future of domestic taxes.  The number will have to show a substantial drop from its recent historical high perch to affect prospects for the all-important ECB rate hike due in early August, as general sentiment remains strong despite future uncertainty.

Previous:  Defying expectations, the German IFO survey for June surpassed the 15-year high established only two months prior.  The survey reported in at 106.8, up from the revised 105.7 total in May and against expectations of a decline to 105.  This put the gauge at its highest level since February of 1991.  The indicator improved despite rising oil prices and a strengthening euro, which has strained export potential.  Domestic demand has picked up some of the slack, however, thanks in part to an improving employment picture and liberal spending habits before next year's substantial tax increase.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.