Categories
Search
 

Web

TigerShark
Popular Authors
  1. Dave Mecklenburg
  2. Momentum Trader
  3. Candlestick Trader
  4. Stock Scalper
  5. Pullback Trader
  6. Breakout Trader
  7. Reversal Trader
  8. Mean Reversion Trader
  9. Frugal Trader
  10. Swing Trader
  11. Canslim Investor
  12. Dog Investor
  13. Dave Landry
  14. Art Collins
  15. Lawrence G. McMillan
No popular authors found.
Website Info
 Free Festival of Traders Videos
Article Options
Popular Articles
  1. A 10-Day Trading System
  2. Use the Right Technical Tools When You Trade
  3. Which Stock Trading Theory Works?
  4. Conquer the Four Fears
  5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Trading Systems
No popular articles found.
US Dollar Crumbles
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/27/2006 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Crumbles

EUR/USD - From yesterday - "A break above 1.2712 exposes a potential trendline from the 1.2976 high and 1.2859 high near the 1.2800 figure."  We'll stick to that view although in the very near term a correction of strength to this point is a possibility.  RSI is severely overbought on the hourly and the rally from 1.2568 appears to be a full 5 waves.  Initial support is at the previous congestion area of 1.2689-1.2704.  Additional losses probe the 38.2% fibo of 1.2556-1.2746 at 1.2674.

USD/JPY - Yesterday, we focused on the short term trendline from 113.41 and mentioned that "losses below there would target the 61.8% fibo of 113.41-117.88 at 115.12."  Price has stalled at the 50% fibo so far, but scope remains for an eventual test of the 61.8% fibo , which is also very close to the more important supporting trendline on the daily from the 108.96 low.  A break below that line really bolsters the bearish case.  A bounce higher in the short term is possible with short term oscillators oversold - initial resistance is at yesterday's low at 116.16.

GBP/USD - Cable has also taken off against the dollar, surging all the way to the 1.8600 figure to test the 7/21 and 7/24 highs at 1.8597.  A daily close above there would reinforce the bullish picture.  Next resistance is at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8666.  Initial support is at yesterday's high of 1.8549.  Similar to EUR/USD, a potential long term resisting trendline connects the highs from December 2004 and May 2006.  That trendline is at around 1.8900.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF is quickly approaching the 7/24 low at 1.2348.  A break below there would target a supporting trendline on the daily from the 1.1919 low at 1.2285.  Much like USD/JPY, a break below the trendline on the daily would really turn the picture bearish.  Also protecting support at the 7/24 low is the 61.8% fibo of 1.2190-1.2596 at 1.2345 and the 20 day SMA at 1.2355.  This support combined with the grossly oversold readings on the hourly point to a bounce higher in the near term.  Initial resistance is at yesterday's low at the psychological 1.2400 figure.

USD/CAD - Little has changed from yesterday - "The failure of USD/CAD to challenge the 1.1456 high from 7/24 must be disconcerting to bulls.  The longer term bias is up due to the break of the ascending triangle at 1.1260/80 and the series of higher lows at 1.0927, 1.0960, 1.1035, and 1.1255.  However, the rally looks tired on the daily chart.  Divergence with CCI on the daily and CCI declining from well above 100 to just above 100 favor a decline in the near term.  Immediate support is at the 7/24 low at 1.1366 with a break exposing the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1456 at 1.1296.  Price action may seem choppy right now, but this fits with the gradual changing of a long term trend as a large distribution low is formed."  A bounce in the short term looks probable with price stalling at the 61.8% fibo of 1.1261-1.1456 at 1.1336.

AUD/USD - The Aussie has also rallied and traded through its upper Bollinger band on the daily.  A projected resisting trendline from a line parallel to a supporting line from the .7270 and .7403 lows is near current price.  A continuation within this channel probes the 78.6% fibo of .7791-.7269 at .7679.  RSI on the hourly shows bearish divergence so a setback could be in the near term picture.  Initial support is at today's low at .7599.

NZD/USD - Kiwi is little changed from yesterday so we'll reiterate from yesterday - "Kiwi is looking more bearish by the day.  The pair has continued to hold below the 61.8% fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6245 (on a daily closing basis).  This combined with the long wicks on the daily candles (above the bodies) suggest strong selling pressure at .6275/82 (7/25 and 7/18 highs).  In any case, a break higher would probe the 78.6% fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6332."  However, price just recently broke below a symmetrical triangle on the hourly, suggesting that the path is lower.  The pair is currently testing the low side of the triangle as resistance just above the .6200 figure.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.