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US Dollar Corrects Losses
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/28/2006 | Currency | Unrated
US Dollar Corrects Losses

EUR/USD - It is possible that the correction from the 1.2774 high is complete at 1.2675.  The 7/25 high at 1.2671 is support just below current price.  A break below 1.2671 would expose the 61.8% fibo of 1.2556-1.2774 at 1.2640.  The favored view is bullish unless the 1.2556 low gives way to lower prices.  Initial resistance is at yesterday's 1.2774 high.  A break above yesterday's high (as well as the 61.8% of 1.2976-1.2456 at 1.2776) would probe the trendline that connects the 1.3666 and 1.2976 highs at around 1.2870.

USD/JPY - Price has come very close to testing the 61.8% fibo of 113.41-117.88 at 115.12 - bottoming so far today at 115.22.  There is massive divergence with oscillators on the hourly at a double bottom from yesterday and today's 115.28 and 115.22 lows.  This sets the stage for a rally attempt to challenge the 38.2% fibo of 117.88-115.22 at 116.24.  Additional support is at a trendline on the daily that stems from the 108.96 low.       

GBP/USD - Initial support at the 7/26 high of 1.8549 has held so far.  Cable bounced off the 1.8543 to test the 1.8600 figure this morning.  Hourly oscillators are sloping up again and above midpoints, showing positive short term momentum.  Although yesterday's high topped out at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 and yesterday's candle formed a long reverse hammer, the bullish bias remains fro the simple fact that GBP/USD continues to make higher lows (1.8090, 1.8176, 1.8383).  Initial resistance is at yesterday's high of 1.8675 with a push higher exposing the 6/6 high at 1.8775 and 78.6% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8822.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF tumbled yesterday and came close to testing the 1.2300 figure, bottoming out at 1.2306.  Price has since bounced all the way to the 1.2400 figure - which is also the 38.2% of 1.2546-1.2306.  Any gains above the 1.2400 figure encounter additional fibo resistance at 1.2425 (50%) and 1.2453 (61.8%).  A break below a trendline on the daily (from the 1.1919 low) would really turn the picture bearish.      

USD/CAD - Little has changed from yesterday as USD/CAD continues to consolidate in a tight range.  "The failure of USD/CAD to challenge the 1.1456 high from 7/24 must be disconcerting to bulls.  The longer term bias is up due to the break of the ascending triangle at 1.1260/80 and the series of higher lows at 1.0927, 1.0960, 1.1035, and 1.1255.  However, the rally looks tired on the daily chart.  Divergence with CCI on the daily and CCI declining from well above 100 to just above 100 favors a decline in the near term.  Immediate support is at the 7/24 low at 1.1366 with a break exposing the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1456 at 1.1296.  Price action may seem choppy right now, but this fits with the gradual changing of a long term trend as a large distribution low is formed."  A bounce in the short term looks probable with price stalling at the 61.8% fibo of 1.1261-1.1456 at 1.1336.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD has come off its high yesterday above the upper Bollinger band on the daily at .7658 to challenge the .7600 figure.  The nature of the decline is choppy and corrective but scope remains for a deeper retracement to the confluence of the 7/25 high / 38.2% fibo of .7403-.7658 at .7561/63.  Gains past yesterday's high at .7658 target the 78.6% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7678.

NZD/USD - Kiwi is the weakest of the bunch as the pair has fallen to the 38.2% fibo of  5927-.6282 at .6147.  Price is currently testing the 20 day SMA and a break lower would bolster a longer term bearish picture.  Slight bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly as well as RSI rising from below 30 favor a short term bounce with initial resistance at yesterday's low at .6173.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.