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Euro Looks Bullish Versus Commodity Currencies
By Jamie Saettele | Published  07/28/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Looks Bullish Versus Commodity Currencies

EUR/AUD - EUR/AUD continued its decline, finding support at the 78.6% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 at 1.6576 on 7/26.  That fibo support combined with a trendline on the daily from the 1.5609 low on 12/6 favors a rally attempt.  Bullish divergence with CCI on the daily and CCI rising from above -100 reinforce a bullish stance.  Support is at the 7/26 low at 1.6574.  A break below there would negate the bullish bias and expose the 5/4 low at 1.6364.  First resistance in the event of a rally is not until the 7/24 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.7351-1.6574 at 1.6889. 

EUR/CAD - The EUR/CAD rise has been stymied time and time again at the 1.4455/70 level.  The 5/24, 7/11, 7/12, 7/24, and 7/27 highs all fall within 1.4455/72.  The ceiling of resistance is similar to the USD/CAD formation a few weeks ago when the pair was rejected time and time again at the 1.1260/80 level.  In fact, EURCAD has formed an ascending triangle of its own from the 6/13 low at 1.3795.  As such, a break above the 1.4470 level could propel price to the 38.2% fibo of 1.6701-1.3493 at 1.4717.  The supporting trendline from the ascending triangle is at 1.4245 and increases about 10 pips per day.  If the pair fails to hold the ascending triangle, then the 7/18 low at 1.4138 comes into play. 

EUR/NZD - EUR/NZD has rallied off of support just above the 1.9900 figure and formed a triple bottom with the 5/25, 6/12, and 7/18 lows at 1.9896/1.9919.  In the near term, a correction is due (a decline) as suggested by bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly.  Initial support is at the confluence of the 38.2% of 2.0093-2.0633 /today's low at 2.0428/44.  A continuation of strength targets the 5/15 high at 2.0834.   

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.