EUR/USD - EUR/USD rallied to 1.2770 on Friday to form a double top. The pair has since consolidated and scope remains for additional weakness before another leg higher. Bulls are protected by a short term trendline / 61.8% fibo of 1.2657-1.2772 at 1.2702. It would take a break below there to negate the near term bullish view. Strength past the 1.2772 high encounters potential resistance from a resisting trendline (originates at 6/5 high at 1.2976). The 7/7 high at 1.2859 is resistance on a break above the mentioned resisting trendline.
USD/JPY - The hourly shows bullish divergence with RSI following the decline to just below the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-117.88 at 114.48. This sets the stage for a rally attempt to the 38.2% fibo of 117.38-114.23 (today's low) at 115.43 or the confluence of the 50% fibo / 7/21 low at 115.80/81. USD/JPY has come right into the zone for the terminus of a 3rd wave down from 117.38 as marked by the 138.2% and 161.8% fibo extensions of 117.88-115.81 at 114.01/50. Thus, a test of the 161.8% fibo at the 114.00 figure before a corrective bounce plays out is a possibility.
GBP/USD - Cable has rallied back near the highs from 7/27 and 7/28 just above 1.8650. However, the rally has resulted in a short term triple top, indicating a much needed correction. Support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.8382-1.8675 at 1.8564, the 50% fibo at 1.8530 and the 61.8% fibo at 1.8495. Support from a trendline (originating at 7/17 low at 1.8176) is near the 61.8% fibo. Friday's candle was an inside day at the upper Bollinger band on the daily, a signal that also favors a correction of recent strength.
USD/CHF - The USD/CHF decline has stalled just above the 1.2300 figure. The pair has ranged and formed a congestion area between 1.2309 and 1.2347. This is a good point of reference from which to adopt a bias. A break above the congestion area favors a bounce to the 38.2% fibo of 1.2546-1.2306 at 1.2398 and a break below favors a continuation of the decline to the 78.6% fibo of 1.2190-1.2595 at 1.2277. Price is very close to support from a trendline that stems from the 1.1919 low (on daily chart below).
USD/CAD - USD/CAD has declined and continues to correct the strength following the break of the ascending triangle. It is possible that the correction is nearing an end as the pair trades back in the lower end of a recent range and hourly oscillators show bullish divergence. The 7/14 low at 1.1255 is immediate support. A break below there would target the 61.8% fibo of 1.1039-1.1457 at 1.1198.
AUD/USD - AUD/USD rallied off of the .7600 figure to surpass the 7/27 high at .7658 and form bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly. Just above current price is the 78.6% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7679 and daily RSI is near overbought, suggesting that risk to the upside is limited. In any case, a spike above the .7700 figure encounters potential resistance from the 5/17 high at .7725. Initial support is at Friday's low at .7591.
NZD/USD - Kiwi bounced off of the 38.2% fibo of .5927-.6282 at .6148 on Friday. Action continued to look bearish though as RSI on both the hourly and daily have turned down below 50 (midpoint). Price currently trades right at the 20 day SMA. A break lower sees initial support at Friday's low at .6143. Initial resistance is at today's high at .6203.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.