EUR/USD - The rally stalled around the 1.2800 figure yesterday and prices then fell to 1.2740 last night, which is the 78.6% fibo of 1.2718-1.2834.  The pair has built a base above 1.2740 but a break lower would target the confluence of the 8/1 low / 10 day SMA at 1.2718/20.   A break below there would seriously dampen bull's spirits.  1.2800 is protected by today's high at 1.2795.  If the 1.2835 high is taken out, then price probes the 7/7 high at 1.2859.    

USD/JPY - USD/JPY has rallied off of the double bottom at 114.17/18 from the 7/31 and 8/2 lows.  Price is approaching resistance at the 8/1 high at 115.37.  A break above 115.37 encounters possible resistance from the 50% fibo of 117.38-114.16 at 115.77.  This consolidation from 114.17 is just that, a consolidation, and the bearish bias remains unless the 7/21 low at 115.81 is broken to the upside.  With RSI the overbought level on the hourly, the rise from 114.17 may be nearing an end.  A break below 114.17 encounters the 50% fibo of 108.96-117.87 at 113.42.

GBP/USD - We mentioned yesterday that "A break above the 1.8688 high could see an assault on the 78.6% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8823."  We'll stick to that statement.  Cable has held up well in the face of recent dollar strength.  The pair has held above the 1.8700 figure and immediate support is at the 7/31 high of 1.8688.  A break below there could test the 38.2% fibo of 1.8381-1.8795 at 1.8638.  The daily is turning more bearish as price has reversed off of the upper Bollinger band.  Still, trend structure is bullish as long as price holds above the 7/21, 7/24 highs at 1.8597.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF has retraced weakness and the pair is close to resistance from the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2546-1.2253 / 8/1high at 1.2365/67.  The 10 and 20 day SMA are also just above at 1.2368.  Long upper wicks on hourly candles just below this level suggest that some selling pressure is present.  A break above the 1.2365/68 area does damage to the bearish picture.  Initial support is at the 8/1 low at 1.2254.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD continues to trade within the support zone from 1.1260/80.  The longer term bias is still bullish and remains so unless 1.1039 is broken to the downside.  Unless that happens, the series of higher lows is intact.  Immediate support is at the 7/31 low at 1.1218 with additional losses probing the supporting trendline from the ascending triangle on the daily - currently at 1.1128.  Momentum is down as oscillators on the daily exhibit negative slope.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD has traded in a range for the last week primarily between .7595 and .7675.  At the moment, price is testing the .7600 figure.  If .7600 holds, then there is a triple bottom from the 7/28, 8/1, and 8/3 lows.  RSI is increasing from below 30 - suggesting higher prices in the near term.  A sustained break below .7600 bolsters the bearish bias.  We are looking for a longer term turn to the downside in AUD/USD due to COT positioning.

NZD/USD - Kiwi broke out of a 50 pips range to test .6235 today but has fallen right back to the .6200 figure.  The rejection of .6235 occurred at a resisting trendline (from the 7/25 high at .6274).  Price is now consolidating within a triangle, so volatility could very well contract over the near term before a break occurs.  The upper end of the triangle is near .6225 and lower end near .6165.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.