New Zealand Private Sector Labor Costs (QoQ) (2Q) (22:45 GMT; 18:45 EST)
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: 0.7%
Outlook: Privately owned firms in New Zealand, accounting for over three-quarters of the economy, are expected to have boosted wages once again in the second quarter. According to the New Zealand branch of Jays Plc, a recruiting company, quarterly wages advanced by 0.7 percent for the third straight time. The economy also expects to hold its 3.9 percent jobless rate, which is the second lowest of the twenty-seven OECD economies. In fact, the low jobless rate receives credit for wage growth, as employers must compete for skilled labor in the shrinking labor pool. At the same time, there are signs that employees are slowing their pace of hiring. However, the second quarter's measure is still on pace increase consumers disposable income and further fund the domestic-spending based level of inflation that has put the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in a lurch. On July 27th, RBNZ Governor Bollard declared that it "will be some time" before the central bank would be able to cut its record high benchmark rate, but a rise in the labor cost gauge could make this a more difficult proposition.
Previous: Annual wage inflation in New Zealand's economy accelerated by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2006, adding to inflationary pressure in an already restrictive monetary environment. The survey indicated that 25 percent of companies increased salaries by less than three percent while around 58 percent of employers increased salaries between three and six percent, and 17 percent raised wages by over 6 percent. Mining, information technology and telecommunications Industries provided the largest increases in workers' salaries included. Wage growth has been accelerating for many years, but appears to be easing after its peak at a 0.9 percent pace over the third quarter of 2005.
Swiss Unemployment Rate (JUL) (05:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
(Headline) (Seasonally Adjusted)
Consensus: 3.0% 3.3%
Previous: 3.1% 3.3%
Outlook: When adjusted for seasonal swings, unemployment is expected to hold at multi-year lows in the $340 billion Swiss economy. Now at 3.3 percent, the jobless rate has been steadily declining since its multi-year high of 4.0 in September of 2003. Proving the muscle behind the improving labor market has been European expansion, which has been boosting demand for Swiss goods and flushing Swiss companies with revenue to spend on pushing back capacity restraints. Another indicator foretelling a strong government employment read was the UBS leading indicator, which continued to extend its highs last month. The Swiss National Bank has raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point each quarter since this past December, in line with the ECB. Although Swiss rates are still low, signs that they are working ay already be presenting themselves as seen in Thursday's largest drop in the CPI gauge in two years. Lower inflation, which tends to move inversely with unemployment, could prove the end for the labor market's recent cycle higher, especially if slowing growth is close behind.
Previous: Unemployment in Switzerland fell to the lowest rate in over three years in June in response to faster economic growth. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the jobless rate declined to 3.3 percent from a 3.4 percent rate in May. The government expects economic growth to reach 2.7 percent this year, which would be the best showing since 2000. Low unemployment has enhanced manufacturing growth evidenced by its rise in June for the first time in three months. Swiss economic strength, which has been building up inflation, led the SNB to raise rates on June 15th by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent. While growth continues and rates are still among the lowest across the globe, the central bank is expected to take more action in the near future.
UK Industrial Production (JUN) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.2% -0.3%
Previous: 0.3% -0.7%
Outlook: The $2 trillion British economy is expected to see a second consecutive monthly improvement in overall industry in June, expanding at a 0.2 percent pace. Such a gain would bring it closer to an even read on the year as economic strength in the U.K. has the Bank of England watching for signs monetary liquidity needs restriction. Nevertheless, factory activity should come in strong as the PMI and CBI surveys showed that manufacturing and business expansion are being fueled by surging retail sales. Industrial activity's future is not as promising, however, as the housing industry appears to be slowing, imposing a serious threat to the British consumer and in turn the demand for domestically produced goods. Although consumers do not account for much of the industrial client base - other business do - there is still an indirect link between the two as reined in spending further down stream would curtail the need to produce goods upstream. Looking ahead, the BoE's recent rate hike is likely to stifle growth in factory activity as higher lending rates degrades companies' ability to finance projects.
Previous: Industrial production in the United Kingdom rebounded from April's unexpected drop as growth in energy prices cooled and borrowing costs remained flat. Durable goods continued to decline on a monthly basis but were somewhat skewed by March's abnormal gain of 3.4 percent. Those components which helped the gauge improve were non-durable goods, which rose 0.3 percent, investments, up 0.8 percent and intermediate goods, which were up 0.1 percent. All four declined in April. More specifically, much of the activity was accredited to engineering-related goods and chemical products. Manufactured goods, a significant portion of this measure, were especially enhanced by foreign demand, which implies risk as the global economy, some analysts speculate, is showing signs of running out of steam.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.