Energies
So the Natty spikes on the heat wave and power blackouts, but tops after the end of the heat wave comes into sight.  If you took advantage of the move and sold some $10 Sept. calls as I recommended then I hope you covered them today for a hefty profit.  If not you better bailout on Monday as the time to expiration isnââ,¬â"¢t worth the remaining premium collection.  Crude oil topped as well and remains very range bound as expected.  I may not be able to call a move in gold to save my life but you trade the markets you are a step ahead of and energies are one of them.  Continue to sell OTM calls on bounces and OTM puts on dips about 4-5 weeks out in time. 

Financials
Stocks penetrated 1290 on a solid employment report today, but failed to breach the 1305 (head and shoulders top?) mark and reversed to close out the week.  I remain bearish until a break and close above 1305.  Bonds penetrated my 108-16 resistance and my remaining stop at 110-02 would likely signal the long term trend reversal of the bond market ââ,¬â€œ seems a bit premature to me.  Continue to buy puts heading into the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.  The market has built in a no rate hike result into Tuesdayââ,¬â"¢s meeting and I wonder what could possibly come from this meetingââ,¬â"¢s announcement that could rally bond prices.  Moreover, imagine the downside exposure to a Ã,¼ point shocker.  Long strangles and puts galore heading into the meeting is the way to go.  The dollar is a bit weaker than expected, but I remain a buyer of euro puts on bounces.  The Canadian is still taking too long to fail in order to keep momentum, but the consolidation remains long term bearish.

Grains
Choppiness in grains continue as weather is on again, off again.  Bottom line is it is too little too late and only harvest problems are going to save a blockbuster corn crop (that or an ethanol revolution).  Wheat remains tied to a substitutive demand correlation to corn prices, but overall remains fundamentally and technically bullish.  Beans are weak but near bottom support.  The WASDE report next Friday could turn these markets bullish, but overall look for long option volatility plays.  Rice is still a buy.

Meats
A bull rally today marked the end of ugly consolidation in cattle.  I remain bearish but the short term bullish technicals are hard to argue.  Continue to accumulate puts and/or long strangles as the market will not stay at these prices for long.  Hogs turned bullish with resistance at 7060 and 7190 on the August contract.

Metals
Choppy bullish action in metals was sparked by an exaggerated decline in the dollar, despite diminishing inflation worries and lower bond yields heading into next weekââ,¬â"¢s FOMC meeting.  Next week should break the metals market one way or the other as the FOMC meeting and the trade balance reports should decide the intermediate term fate of the US dollar.

Softs
OJ is volatile and choppy and Tropical Storm Chris threatened Florida and kept a residual premium in the market despite not amounting to anything.  This is just a taste of what the next few months can bring to this market and the next few weeks should be interesting.  A real hurricane threat gets OJ above $2.  Coffee prices spiked higher and appear to be in rally mode after closing above key 1.05 resistance.  Breaking the 1.10 mark is critical in sustaining momentum next week and making this rally legitimate.  Remember this move comes after the market sets fresh multi-year lows, a strong sign of potential price support.  Cotton prices chopped around all week and I continue to fight the analysts and say this bull bounce is not the real deal.  I may miss the move but I only have one gut and it is telling me to buy puts or stay away.  Cocoa filled much of the gap it had left from its collapse a couple of weeks ago, but failed miserably before filling it completely.  I remain bullish and would recommend an exit of longs at 1540 and a reentry into the longs on a close above 1560.  Sugar broke support as expected and is a strong sell if 1410 is penetrated. 

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.