EUR/USD - The rally from 1.2481 has stalled at the resisting trendline that connects the 1.3666 high from December 2004 and the 1.2976 high from June 2006. RSI on the hourly has declined from above overbought periods and is neutral at 50. Support is at the 8/3 high at 1.2833. If price remains above there, then upside potential remains with the June 2006 high at 1.2976 as the next target for bulls. A break below 1.2833 could see a return to the 8/3 low at 1.2740.
USD/JPY - Support for USD/JPY has clustered at the 78.6% fibo of 113.42-117.88 at 114.39 (with Friday's dip taking the pair to 113.95). It is possible that the dip to 113.95 was the end of a 5 wave bearish sequence and that the subsequent rally is the (or part of the) first of 3 corrective waves. Resistance is at the 38.2% fibo of 117.88-113.95 at 115.44. A break below the 113.95 low would expose the 7/10 low at 113.42.
GBP/USD - Cable remains strong as the pair blasted by the 5/17 high at 1.9025 on Friday in a 300+ pip day. Things may be setting up for a long term turn to the downside in a large head and shoulders reversal pattern. The 2/18/2004 high at 1.9140 would be the left shoulder with the right shoulder forming now. Also, the rise from 1.7046 (November 2005) appears to be in 5 waves - which means that the uptrend is potentially over (or close to over). Negative divergence with oscillators on the daily (and overbought RSI) also favor a turn. Still, gains past 1.9128 target the 1.9215-1.9323 area (congestion from 4/20/2005 high to 3/8/2005 high).
USD/CHF - USD/CHF decline to just below 1.2200 to make a double bottom with the 7/7 low at 1.2190. However, the break below the supporting trendline on the daily (from the 1.1919 low) indicates a bearish bias. A break below the 1.2190 double bottom exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2067. A corrective move higher encounters resistance at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2595-1.2190 / 8/4 high at 1.2344/49.
USD/CAD - USD/CAD continues to trade within the support zone from 1.1260/80. The longer term bias is still bullish and remains so unless 1.1039 is broken to the downside. Unless that happens, the series of higher lows is intact. Immediate support is at the 7/31 low at 1.1218 with additional losses probing the supporting trendline from the ascending triangle on the daily - currently at 1.1128. Momentum is down as oscillators on the daily exhibit negative slope.
AUD/USD - AUD/USD has traded in a range for the last week primarily between .7595 and .7675. Friday's rally and failure at .7670 made a triple top at .7670/80. A triple bottom at .7600 is support. A break below .7600 would open favor bears with support at the 38.2% fibo of .7270-.7680 at .7523. On the other hand, gains above .7680 favor a continuation of strength towards the 5/17 high at .7725. Recent COT positioning reports favor the downside as the public is overwhelmingly long AUD.
NZD/USD - Kiwi has also formed a triple top with Friday's rally and failure. The resistance area from the triple top is at .6270/80. The recent consolidation is not as tight as AUD/USD's range and support is at the 7/28 low at .6143. Fibo supports of the .6143-.6272 rally are at .6223, .6208, and .6192. A break above the triple top at .6270/80 would favor bulls and expose the next resistance area at .6345 (6/9 high).
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.