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Market Remains Whippy Ahead of Fed
By Toni Hansen | Published  08/7/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Remains Whippy Ahead of Fed

Good day!  The market surged higher on Friday morning into the open following weaker-than- expected July jobs data. This raised hopes of an end to the Fed rate hikes, which will be a primary focus for many market participants this week going into Tuesday's meeting. After 17 consecutive hikes, the fed funds rate is currently 5.25%. The market hasn't had much luck holding onto gains from one day to the next, however, without a significant intraday retracement. Although the buying continued into the open on Friday, when the 9:45 ET reversal period hit, the Nasdaq had run into 50 day simple moving average resistance and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. came across price resistance from several months back. This helped put an end to the buying and it didn't take a lot of incentive for things to again head south.

Choppy selling brought the NASDAQ and S&P 500 into support at the 5 minute 20 sma around 10:15 ET. Volume then began to back off heading into noon as the market fell into a trading range along the intraday lows. The range broker lower into noon, busting the 15 minute 20 sma support and leading to a strong trend move that lasted several hours. There was a lot of overlap as the market fell. The Dow had the hardest time gaining momentum, while the Nasdaq saw the smoothest decline initially. They switched rolls a bit shortly after 13:00 ET on a continuation pattern out of a small 5 minute base at intraday lows. The Dow saw the strongest follow-through, but all three indices established new lows on the day.

The 13:30 ET reversal period held well and the market began to try to change pace into the remainder of the day. An initial attempt was made for a 2B at 14:30 ET with the double bottom, but the pace of the selling was still strong enough that the upside momentum was not yet able to increase. A second attempt at a slightly lower low allowed for the pace to turn over a bit better and the 15:00 ET reversal period led to a pivot off lows the held into the close. The rally was choppy, but still took the indices into 15 minute 20 sma resistance by the bell.

Due to Tuesday's Fed, I am not looking for much on the daily charts at the moment, since new positions can easily be flushed out by any strong reaction to the rate announcement, especially given the degree of speculation attached to it. It would not surprise me to see another slow Monday, similar to last week. I do not expect to be that active as a result. Earnings season is slowing down once more, but there is still a lot out there than can provide pockets of momentum this week and that is where most of my focus will be for stocks.

Economic Reports and Events
Aug. 7: Consumer Credit for June (3:00 pm)
Aug. 8: Productivity-Prel Q2 (8:30 am), FOMC policy statement (2:15 pm)
Aug. 9: Wholesale Inventories for June (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 8/4 (10:30 am)
Aug. 10: Initial Claims 8/5 (8:30 am), Trade Balance for June (8:30 am), Treasury Budget for July (2:00 pm)
Aug. 11: Export Prices ex-ag, Import Prices ex-oil, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-auto for July (8:30 am), Business Inventories for June (10:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight.
Aug. 7: AMT, ACF, AHS, ANH, AINV, AXS, BBD, EAGL, EP, ENCY, ENTG, FLR, FTO, HMY, MVL, MDR, MYOG, OSIP, PCLN, RTEC, SONS, YSI, URI
Aug. 8: AFR, BMC, CELL, CVC, CMX, CRL, CHRD, CSCO, CCU, CMLS, DNDN, DIGE, DCEL, HLTH, ETR, FMT, GMST, GGP, GIGM, GSS, KOSP, LAMR, LNC, MGAM, NWS, NUAN, RL, PVX, QSFT, RRI, SAPE, SLE, STX, TEVA, DTV, UMC, WPI, WNR
Aug. 9: LEND, ACS, AIG, SIL, RMK, AVT, CSE, CPST, CD, DYN, FWLT, GE, HSP, HGSI, IO, KG, LBTYA, MIR, HAWK, PGN, THC, IPG, UTSI, DIS, WCI
Aug. 10: AAP, AIRN, ADI, BVF, BGG, EAT, CREE, DISH, ELX, EXPE, FMD, GG, ING, JCP, KSS, MOVI, NXG, NVDA, PSUN, TGT, TOMO, UBB, URBN
Aug. 11: CCUR, ERJ, IAG, PBR
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.