The last few weeks have been wild to say the least, including our sector calls. Many have gone on as expected, and should currently be profitable. Some have defied the odds, but we want to acknowledge - and possibly cancel - those as well. So, today's Sector Spotlight will be a revisit three of the more recent sector trends we've discussed.
Auto Manufacturers
Back on June 19, and again on July 19, we mentioned that the auto manufacturers had broken free of a multi-year rut, and were poised to be a market leader (if it actually can manage to go higher). At the time we first mentioned it in June, the Dow Jones U.S. Auto Index (DJUSAU) was at 155.87. As of Friday, it was at 173.63. That's an 11.4% gain in less than two months. The impressive part is not the size of the gain, but the fact that practically nobody at the time thought it could actually happen. It's not that we had some sort of secret formula to make the call, we were just reading charts in a very straight-forward manner. As a reminder, the bullish call stemmed from a break above a long-term resistance line as well as the 200-day moving average line. We've re-plotted both on the chart below. More importantly, yes, we think the auto-makers still have plenty of upside left. Just keep in mind these stocks are pretty sensitive to, and correlated with, the overall market in the short run. But, since it's a longer-term view, don't get too rattled by a little volatility.
Dow Jones U.S. Auto Index (DJUSAU) - Weekly
Insurance
Also on July 19, we went bearish on insurance stocks. While we thought all the insurers were poised to fall, the chart of the life insurers looked the most vulnerable. At the time, we were basing the bearish call on weekly charts of the Dow Jones Property Insurance Index (DJUSIP), Dow Jones Life Insurance Index (DJUSIL), and Dow Jones Full Line Insurance Index (DJUSIF).
Well, for the most part, none of these potential downtrends has taken shape yet. However, we still think they all could, so we're going to leave the bearish call out there. The full-line index is actually 4 points higher than it was then, while the property index is about 2 points higher. The life insurance index - the one we still think has the farthest to fall is indeed 4 points under where we saw it when we first mentioned it. Although all these stocks are still showing us technically bearish charts, the weakness of the life insurance index has now been verified with a loss. Besides, the life insurer index just saw its 50-day line fall under its 200-day line for the first time since 2003.
We'll set an initial target of 535 for the Dow Jones Life Insurance Index (DJUSIL), as that's where the last major support level was. However, you may want to watch this line closely until the index actually closes under its recent support near 583. Stops on the bearish call come with any close back above the 50 day line, currently at 604.
Dow Jones Life Insurance Index (DJUSIL) - Weekly
Transportation
Back on July 3, we discussed what appeared to be renewed strength for all the transportation stocks. That bullishness lasted a few more days, but has since turned sour - to say the least. Needless to say, our opinion of the sector has changed.
The reversal wasn't a total shock. We mentioned that the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) has seen resistance just a few days before at the 5013, and advised waiting to see whether or not that line was breached before going long. Well, the line was never breached. Instead, these stocks plotted a strong downside reversal after making a double-top. And last week, the closed under the 200-day line for the second time in a row. That's an official bearish signal, augmented by the fact that it was the first close under the 200-day line since the weakness we experienced in September of last year. The volume behind all the selling has been stronger than average too, so we'd steer clear of this sector for the time being.
Dow Jones Transportation Average - Weekly
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.