EUR/USD - The supporting trendline from the 1.2456 low held beautifully in the Asian session as the EURUSD has rallied over 100 pips since tagging the supporting trendline. The pair is working towards the 8/4 high at 1.2908, which is the next level of resistance. A break above there targets the 6/5 high at 1.2976. This rally could reach 1.3018 in coming the days - which is where the length of wave 5 (beginning at today's low at 1.2762) would equal the length of wave 1 (1.2456 to 1.2712). Of course, 1.2762 must hold in order for this to remain possible. A break below 1.2762 exposes the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2908 at 1.2736.
USD/JPY - USDJPY has also held a trendline (but as resistance). The pair also appears to have traced out a 3 wave (a-b-c) correction following the decline from 117.88 and tonight's 115.75 high (at the 20 day SMA) may have completed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. This structure favors the downside if 115.75 holds. Additional resistance would come in at the 61.8% fibo of 117.88-113.95 at 116.37. A break of the 8/4 low at 113.95 exposes the confluence of the 7/10 low / 50% fibo of 108.96-117.88 at 113.42.
GBP/USD - Cable is little changed as the pair dipped to 1.8970 yesterday during the bought of dollar strength but has since rallied back to just above the 1.9050 level. Things may be setting up for a long term turn to the downside in a large head and shoulders reversal pattern. The 2/18/2004 high at 1.9140 would be the left shoulder with the right shoulder forming now. Also, the rise from 1.7046 (November 2005) appears to be in 5 waves - which means that the uptrend is potentially over (or close to over). Negative divergence with oscillators on the daily (and overbought RSI) also favor a turn. Still, gains past 1.9128 target the 1.9215-1.9323 area (congestion from 4/20/2005 high to 3/8/2005 high).
USD/CHF - USD/CHF is currently testing the low side of a short term contracting triangle as well as the double bottom (7/7, 8/4 lows) at 1.2190/91. A break lower could see the pair plummet as far as the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2064. As we have focused on the last few days, the bias is bearish due to the break of the trendline from the 1.1919 low. Immediate resistance is at yesterday's high at 1.2285.
USD/CAD - USD/CAD continues to range between primarily 1.1175 and 1.1250. A supporting trendline from the 1.0927 low is just below current price and additional support is below there at the 61.8% fibo of 1.0927-1.1256 at 1.1130. We have favored the bullish side due to the sequence of higher lows since 1.0927 and will continue to unless 1.1039 is breached. The hourly chart shows that the decline from the 1.1456 high in the form of a diagonal triangle. This suggests that we will see a spike low through the bottom of the triangle before a larger rally ensues. Focus on the aforementioned supports.
AUD/USD - AUD/USD broke through the low side of the range (.7680-.7600) that it has traded in for about a week before rallying back into the range. The low from today bounced off of a supporting trendline (from the 6/28 low at .7270) and the near term bias is bullish unless this support line is broken. Resistance is just above at the confluence of the 8/2 high / 78.6% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7680. A rally above there targets the 5/17 high at .7725.
NZD/USD - Kiwi has pushed above the triple top at .6282 - presenting a bullish bias. Additional strength targets the 78.6% fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6332. A near term pullback is possible as there is negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly and price is trading at the upper Bollinger band on the daily. Immediate support is at the .6270/80 area (previous triple top).
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.