AUD/CAD - We mentioned last week that "Daily oscillators are calling for a turn."  The pair has come about 130 pips off of the high on 7/31 at .8684.  The pair hit support yesterday at the 200 day SMA at .8502 and AUDCAD has rebounded to .8550.  For about a month now, we have proposed that this pair could be reversing to the upside after a long term downtrend.  "Last month's high took out the previous 5 month's highs."  With this in mind, it is noteworthy that the decline from .8684 is in 3 waves (corrective) and that the length of the first wave (.8684-.8559) almost equals the exact length of the third wave (.8660-.8515).  This relationship suggests that the move downward is over and that the path of least resistance is up.  A break below .8494 negates the bullish view.

AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY has just tested the 88.00 figure, and possible completed a head and shoulders pattern.  The left shoulder is the 7/18 high at 88.04.  The head is at the 7/26 high at 88.88 and the right shoulder could be at today's high at 88.05.  Of course, price must break below the neckline, which is at 87.14, for this pattern to be complete.  A break above the 88.05 high could challenge the 78.6% fibo of 88.88-87.15 at 88.51.  Still, the bearish bias remains below 88.05.  With current price close to this level, upside risk is limited.  A break below 87.14 (7/21 low) targets the 38.2% fibo of 83.45-88.88 at 86.81.

AUD/NZD - As we expected, AUDNZD fell from the double top at 1.2423/48.  Price has just today found support at the 50 day SMA at 1.2088.  The consolidation of the large 1.0428-1.2423 December 2005 to May 2006 uptrend may be taking the shape of an ascending triangle.  This consolidation pattern along with the fact that the previous trend was up, presents a longer term bullish scenario.  However, near term momentum is down as evidenced by RSI just crossing below 50 and negative MACD slope.  Support comes in at a trendline (from the 6/8 low at 1.1763) near 1.1990.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.