Japanese Trade Balance (yen) (JUN) (23:50 GMT; 19:50 EST)
Consensus:          900.0B
Previous:             467.4B

Outlook: The Japanese trade surplus is anticipated to widen to 900 billion in June as a weaker Yen should have provided a boost within the retail and commercial export sectors. The auto industry, in particular, should contribute large gains due to accelerating demand from the US, despite sustained high gasoline prices.  Income growth in other countries should also benefit exporters, as consumers have more disposable income with which to purchase the relatively cheaper Japanese goods. Overall, improvements in the trade account serve to benefit the yen, as it further supports Japan's longest period of economic growth since World War II.

Previous: May's trade balance fell to a low of 467 billion on the back of higher energy costs and accelerating metal import prices. Compounding the problem over the month, the yen made its largest advance for the year, leaving Japanese-made goods more expensive in the global market place.  This appreciation in the currency probably created the most issues in trade with the US and China, which make up more than a third of Japan's export market. Import growth also took its toll on the surplus, as the figure soared 20.1% in May.  The rise could bode well for the Japanese economy, however, as it may suggest that Japanese are finding their confidence and beginning to spend more of their growing wages - even if it is being spent on foreign goods.

Australian Employment Change (JUL) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
Consensus:           5.0K
Previous:            52.0K

Outlook: Employment is expected to see a sixth straight month of growth, though at a much slower pace than June's unexpected hiring trend. Mining and construction will likely continue to contribute most of the increase, as steady Asian demand for iron and coal encounters solid commodity prices. However, the job market is expected to moderate somewhat after last month's spectacular growth, as thirty-year lows in unemployment propel wage growth that reached record and near-record levels respectively in the first two quarters. It is possible that some employers could prove willing to acquiesce to rising wage demands, but a decline in employment from last month's breakneck pace becomes increasingly plausible given the need for some level of normalization.

Previous: June saw the largest employment increase in almost two years, spurring speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise rates earlier than previously expected. With commodities prices buoying the mining industry and economic growth boosting demand for workers, employment numbers were already predicted to grow at a healthy pace. However, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.9%, June's skyrocketing employment shocked economists as it outstripped expectations and came in five times higher than predictions. Despite Australia's admittedly strong economic growth, competition for employees is driving wage increases that may very well make it unfeasible to maintain June's extraordinary pace.

Japanese Consumer Confidence (JUL) (05:00 GMT; 01:00 EST)
Consensus:        49.0
Previous:           47.3

Outlook: Continued pessimism is the order of the day as Japanese consumer confidence is expected to remain solidly in negative territory. Much of last month's drop in confidence was attributable to the continued effects of high oil and gas costs, making a return to optimism unlikely as oil prices reached new records in July.  In addition, the entire economy is apparently slowing, with annualized GDP in the second quarter predicted to have dropped over a percentage point from the previous three-month period. One particular draw on confidence for the period is likely to be the Bank of Japan's decision to finally remove its accommodative zero interest rate policy.  Though lending rates remain low on a global basis, Japanese have had a long time to become used to having access to cheap money.  With energy prices showing no sign of abating, GDP growth slowing and the reemergence of an inflationary cycle with the appropriate monetary policy to accompany it, expect consumer confidence to have a difficult time moving solidly above the 50.0 net optimist/pessimist level.

Previous: Last month saw Japanese consumer confidence slipped further than conservative expectations of 48.0 to an actual 47.3 figure.  Despite a tight labor market and consistently rising wage growth, price level increases caused consumer sentiment to turn distinctly jittery. Oil prices, which remained above $70 a barrel since April's highs, began to take a bite out of consumer budgets at the pump as well as in pull through effects on other consumer goods.  The figure was surprising given the strong advance in retail sales by a greater than expected 0.4%, largely attributed to buying activity associated with the World Cup.  Also contributing to consumer pessimism were a series of sharp drops in the equities market that saw the Nikkei bottom out at a seven-month low. With Japanese inflation finally beginning to take hold and oil prices reaching new highs in July, a reprieve for consumer confidence is unlikely.

Swiss SECO Consumer Climate (JUL) (05:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
Consensus:        12
Previous:             7

Outlook: The Swiss SECO, based on a quarterly survey of some 1,100 households, is expected to post its third straight gain in July as the labor market continues to improve and moderate inflation helps to boost the purchasing power of consumers.  A five-point jump will match that of the previous quarter.  One facet likely adding to the improved condition were surging exports, up 13.2 percent in June, which have helped fund employers' desire to fill out their payrolls.  Consumer spending, which accounts for 60 percent of the Swiss economy, is reflecting strong confidence as retail sales nearly doubled expectations at 12.2 percent in April.  The UBS Consumption Indicator also hit consecutive highs in May and June, producing respective readings of 1.872 and 2.111.  While manufacturing is still enjoying export strength, there have been a few signs that the aggressive pace of economic growth is slipping.  July's unemployment figure ended its consistent period of contractions.  Also, a retrace in retail sales and June's CPI may point to less consumer spending and perhaps optimism.

Previous: Swiss Consumer Confidence hit its highest level in almost five years in June.  A reading of 7 made for the gauge's second consecutive rise, up from 2 in January and negative 15 covering the latter half of last year.  Consumer spending has been boosted as companies hired more workers to meet demand for exports, pushing unemployment down to a three-year low 3.4 percent in April.  While Swiss exporters have been enjoying growth on account of demand from their European counterparts, the Swiss National Bank has been forced to act by raising its target overnight lending rate to 1.5 percent, as has also followed the ECB in its quarterly rate hikes.  While the Swiss' optimism continues to grow with benefits abound, higher lending rates could develop into a problem.

Canadian International Merchandise Trade (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:       C$4.3B
Previous:          C$4.1B

Outlook: Canadian trade in goods and services is expected to have extended its rebound by another C$0.2 billion in the month of June as imports prolong their decline.  Two factors that were likely at the center of the month's trade figure were the value of the country's currency and ever-buoyant energy prices.  Petroleum products, which account for a sizable portion of the total goods shipments from the country, were still in high demand from most of the globe.  Shipments to the US, Canada's largest trade partner, are expected to be particularly strong as the summer driving season rolled in.  On the other hand, demand for Canadian goods, other than commodities, could be dampened by the high exchange rate.  The Canadian dollar continues to hover near 28-year highs against its US counterpart.  From the import side, consumers have shown signs of restricting their spending in domestic reads.  More recent reads of retail sales and employment data has lent itself to the closing of purse strings.  On the other hand, spending on domestic goods may not provide a direct correlation to imports as the exchange rate allows Canadian earnings to go further in the global market.  Whichever way the balance should move for the period, market participants and policy members will be watching to determine when trade activity will relinquish its role as the engine behind the economy.

Previous: Canadian exports slowed to its lowest level in a year in May though the country's surplus with the rest of the world was still able to rebound from April's multi-year low.  From April's C$3.884 billion positive balance, Canada's surplus grew to C$4.069 billion. This was a feat given the 0.2% contraction in exports from the month before.  Shipments of Canadian goods abroad were crimped specifically by lumber and energy shipments, that are suffering from their own unique problems as well as a generally expensive currency.  Energy exports fell a hearty 4.6% in May to C$7.02 billion as prices realized a temporary, yet sizable, retracement from recent highs.  Shipments of lumber declined for the forth month in a row as soft wood subsidies in the US continue to hurt Canadian production.  Given the poor performance in shipments abroad, the improvement in the balance hinged on imports.  In May, Canadians consumed 0.8% less from foreign sources.  On a different note, the month's trade figure, though better, fell short of expectations.  This provided yet another indicator for the Bank of Canada to consider after they released a statement saying they were unlikely to move again in the near future.  

US Trade Balance (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:        -$64.4B
Previous:           -$63.8B

Outlook: June's trade balance is expected to sink further after reaching its sixth-largest deficit the month before. Most of the factors that caused last month's widening of the trade deficit are still present, but the mitigating effect of a weak dollar disappeared in June as interest rate speculation spurred a recovery in the currency. The stronger dollar, combined with high raw materials costs that will further increase prices, will likely serve to depress exports in the coming report. There is little hope for a significant decline in imports as oil prices, a major contributor to last month's increase in the deficit, were even higher in June than in the month before. With exports likely to slip to the downside and no relief from oil prices on the horizon, expectations for a wider shortfall seem well founded.

Previous: Despite rising import prices, May's trade deficit rose less than expected as a weak dollar helped boost export numbers. Oil, as usual, was the most blatant contributor to the broader gap in the trade balance, helping shoot import prices up by 8.4% as oil prices remained stratospheric and refineries upped their crude imports. In fact, the trade deficit actually shrank overall, if oil is excluded from the calculation. However, the deficit widened only slightly on the month, thanks to the highest level of exports on record, as the dollar weakened against the other major world currencies. With June's stronger dollar and consistently high oil prices, the trade deficit will likely remain a concern.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.