Categories
Search
 

Web

TigerShark
Popular Authors
  1. Dave Mecklenburg
  2. Momentum Trader
  3. Candlestick Trader
  4. Stock Scalper
  5. Pullback Trader
  6. Breakout Trader
  7. Reversal Trader
  8. Mean Reversion Trader
  9. Frugal Trader
  10. Swing Trader
  11. Canslim Investor
  12. Dog Investor
  13. Dave Landry
  14. Art Collins
  15. Lawrence G. McMillan
No popular authors found.
Website Info
 Free Festival of Traders Videos
Article Options
Popular Articles
  1. A 10-Day Trading System
  2. Use the Right Technical Tools When You Trade
  3. Which Stock Trading Theory Works?
  4. Conquer the Four Fears
  5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Trading Systems
No popular articles found.
Technicals Favor Weaker Dollar In Near Term
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/10/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Technicals Favor Weaker Dollar In Near Term

EUR/USD - The resisting trendline originating from the December 2004 high at 1.3666 has held as resistance the last week but trend structure remains bullish.  Today's low at 1.2841 is a shade below the 38.2% fibo of 1.2762-1.2903 at 1.2849.  Further, the decline from 1.2903 is in 3 waves (corrective), which favors a rally from current levels.  This rally could reach 1.3018 in coming the days - which is where the length of wave 5 (beginning at today's low at 1.2762) would equal the length of wave 1 (1.2456 to 1.2712).  Of course, 1.2762 must hold in order for this to remain possible.  A break below 1.2762 exposes the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2908 at 1.2736.

USD/JPY - USDJPY has also held a trendline (but as resistance).  The pair also appears to have traced out a 3 wave (a-b-c) correction following the decline from 117.88 and yesterday's 115.75 high (at the 20 day SMA) may have completed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.  This structure favors the downside if 115.75 holds.  Additional resistance would come in at the 61.8% fibo of 117.88-113.95 at 116.37.  A break of the 8/4 low at 113.95 exposes the confluence of the 7/10 low / 50% fibo of 108.96-117.88 at 113.42.

GBP/USD - Cable may be ready to rally again as the pair has just bounced off of a supporting trendline originating at the 7/26 low at 1.8387.  Still, the GBPUSD rally looks more mature than the EURUSD rally and we aren't sure how much room is left to the upside.  The rise from 1.7046 (November 2005) appears to be in 5 waves - which means that the uptrend could be nearing an end.  Negative divergence with oscillators on the daily (and overbought RSI) indicate slowing upside momentum as well.  Still, gains past 1.9128 target the 1.9215-1.9323 area (congestion from 4/20/2005 high to 3/8/2005 high).

USD/CHF - Support is stacked at 1.2190 (7/7, 8/4, 8/10 lows) but the break of the supporting trendline originating at the 1.1919 low keeps the bias a bearish one.  The near term could see a bit more strength to complete a correction of the decline to 1.2191 on 8/4.  Immediate resistance is at the 10 day SMA at 1.2275.  A break below 1.2190 could see bears challenge the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2064.  Daily oscillators remain bearish as well with negative MACD slope and RSI below 50.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD continues to range between primarily 1.1175 and 1.1250.  A supporting trendline from the 1.0927 low is just below current price and additional support is below there at the 61.8% fibo of 1.0927-1.1256 at 1.1130.  We have favored the bullish side due to the sequence of higher lows since 1.0927 and will continue to unless 1.1039 is breached.  The hourly chart shows that the decline from the 1.1456 high in the form of a diagonal triangle.  This suggests that we will see a spike low through the bottom of the triangle before a larger rally ensues.  Focus on the aforementioned supports.

AUD/USD - AUD/USD has reversed course after testing the low side of a multi-week range from primarily .7680 to .7590.  The pair has traded above the 8/2 high at .7680 today which could be the 5th wave of a 5 wave bullish sequence.  Continued strength targets a potential resisting trendline that connects the 3/8/2005 high at .7988 and the 5/11/2006 high at .7791.  The line is at around .7750.  Support is just below at the former resistance level of .7670/80.

NZD/USD - Kiwi is currently testing the 78.6% fibo of .6443-.5927 as resistance at .6332.  A push above there would expose a potential resisting trendline that connects the 5/3 high at .6443 and the 5/31 high at .6428.  The line is just below the .6400 figure.  The hourly shows that the rally that has persisted since the 7/28 low at .6143 is getting tired as RSI is hovering around overbought territory.  Also, price closed above the upper Bollinger band on the daily yesterday and today's candle is almost entirely above the band - indicating that the rally is becoming a bit overextended.  With this in mind, look for resistance at the aforementioned resistance line.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.