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If It's Not Mideast Peace, It's Not a Rally
By Andy Swan | Published  08/10/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
If It's Not Mideast Peace, It's Not a Rally

Temporary elimination of interest rate uncertainty due to FOMC announcement.  Check.

Positive earnings news from CSCO, further setting the bulls up for a rally. Check.

As expected by most, a bull rally following the bullish news. Hmmm.

If stocks cannot hold onto gains after a rate pause and positive news from a major corporation, the market is in trouble. The market thus far has proved that there is little hope for upside sustainability. Take a look at the screen shot of QQQQ below. This is a 2-day 2-minute bars chart of the Q's and shows the activity in the market after the FOMC Announcement was released, as well as in Wednesday's trading session.

There was an initial spike to the upside after news hit markets that the Fed was pausing interest rates. As the Feds comments in relation to the economy, inflation, energy, etc. began to hit the news wires, the initial rally quickly turned into a sell off. The market interpreted the comments as having a dovish tone towards the near term future of the economy.

Now, take a look at the action "The Day After." Markets put in a nice gap to the upside powered by the temporary removal of interest rate uncertainty, as well as positive earnings news from CSCO. The market held strong, even added to the gains, then broke down and gave back everything by the end of the session. If this isn't a sign that this market has no legs, I don't know what is.

So what's happening this Thursday?  Well, basically confirmation of a bearish tone in the market place. US stock futures are trading lower, suggesting a gap to the downside at the opening bell. Futures in all markets are lower for that matter. To add insult to injury, U.S. airports have increased security based on a very real threat from terrorist. That won't help.

Bottom line: The US economy is slowing, energy prices are at record highs, and global security is not exactly at its high point. Don't get me wrong, I still have great faith in our economy and feel we will continue to prosper. That doesn't change the fact that the market will likely continue to price in a slowdown, as well as uncertainties in energy prices and global security due to turmoil in the Middle East.

Andy Swan is co-founder and head trader for DaytradeTeam.com.  To get all of Andy's day trading, swing trading, and options trading alerts in real time, subscribe to a one-week, all-inclusive trial membership to DaytradeTeam by clicking here.