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Silver at Critical Support May Break Next Week
By James Mound | Published  05/20/2005 | Futures | Unrated
Silver at Critical Support May Break Next Week

Energies
Crude broke through some serious support and is failing hard and fast.  Expect a Monday bounce and sub - $45 pricing from there.  Puts are still under valued and I remain a call seller on $2 rallies or more.  Natural gas broke my critical support and is a short from here.

Financials
Boy was I off - again.  The stock market remains a puzzle with no major moves following through.  This is still a short up here but the bottom line is the market is stuck and is too choppy to be a worthwhile play in either direction for the time being.  I am non-player until we break 1140 or 1230.  Bonds on the other are offering a great play to the downside - just be patient here as the market is being supported by a lot of foreign buying without fundamental justification.  The market is way too ahead of itself and if the Fed doesn't get past the foggy picture statements then the market might just get spooked enough to blast the bonds downward in a very volatile way - so get positioned now for the long haul wait and see.  The dollar continues to break to new highs as anticipated, on its way to a true bull breakout rally.  Continue to short the euro and yen on bounces.

Grains
Grains offered a slight bounce this week, showing signs of value support heading into the critical part of the season.  I remain a buyer on dips, using puts as protection.  Oats remains a strong buy.

Meats
Cattle offered some critical resistance at 8750 and held, showing strong signs of technical failure ahead of this afternoon's cattle on feed.  I remain a vehement bear.  Hogs and bellies remain shorts.

Metals
Gold sunk to new lows today as the dollar stretched to fresh highs, holding a tight correlation and offering good signs of failing sooner rather than later.  Silver is jumping ahead of the game and is on critical support at around 6.95.  Look for the market to break hard early next week if the bear fall is truly upon us.  Palladium is a buy with stops below 175.

Softs
OJ looked solid this week and is back in bull mode as far as I am concerned if we can get and close above 9570.  Coffee is a strong buy with bull call spreads.  Cocoa is a solid volatility play as the market has gotten so quiet it is just too dead to believe that is going to last much longer.  Sugar is a buy with stops below 807.  Cotton offered the sell off I was warning you about and has more downside ahead.  Lumber is still a long term sell. 

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.