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Euro Commodity Crosses Sell Off
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/11/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Commodity Crosses Sell Off

EUR/AUD - EUR/AUD has retraced nearly its entire 1.6574-1.6924 rally - making a double bottom today with the 7/26 low (1.6574).  The 78.6% fibo of 1.6360-1.7351 is at 1.6574 as well - reinforcing support at the 7/26 low.  Hourly RSI shows bullish divergence at today's 1.6579 low - suggesting a turn higher in the near term.  Initial fibo resistance is at the 38.2% of 2.6924-1.6579 at 1.6710.  A break below 1.6574 could see an attack on the 5/11 low at 1.6436.

EUR/CAD - EUR/CAD is currently breaking below a supporting trendline from the 1.3795 low on 6/13.  However, support is just below current price from the confluence of the 7/26 low / 38.2% fibo of 1.3794-1.4588 at 1.4285.  A break below exposes the 50% fibo at 1.4192.  Daily oscillators are also bearish as RSI has dipped below 50 on the daily and MACD exhibits negative slope.  Hourly oscillators are extremely oversold and a bounce in the short term is possible.  Resistance is at former support at the 8/8 low at 1.4313.

EUR/NZD - EUR/NZD recently broke below a trendline originating from the 12/5/2005 low at 1.6326.  The daily shows an obvious head and shoulders pattern and the pair is approaching a triple bottom (in this case also the neckline) at 1.9920.  However, the short term picture is not quite as bearish due to oversold conditions combined with bullish divergence.  Initial resistance is at yesterday's low at 2.0128.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.