With the market - as well as most sectors - remaining stuck in the mud, we'll continue this week with our individual industry calls. After all, this may be the only way to actually find any decent movement for the time being. While most industries don't have an ETF or option to trade, you can still use these themes to find an individual stock or basket of stocks, if you're looking to make the Sector Spotlight actionable.
Medical Supplies
The medical supplies stocks went on our internal watchlist three weeks ago, when the Dow Jones Medical Supplies Index (DJUSMS) gained 4.7% in one week, and crossed back over the 200 day line (green) in the process. However, the move still didn't topple the resistance near 310, where the index had topped out a handful of times since early 2005. Getting - and staying - past 310 would be the key.
Last week, the index made its second close above 310, with a 1.0% move for the week leaving the index at 313.44. This constitutes a technical breakout for the group, and confirms the bullish MACD crossover from three weeks ago. Major names in this group include Baxter (BAX), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Alcon (ACL).
Dow Jones Medical Supplies Index (DJUSMS) - Weekly
Railroads
For the better part of last year - and the early part of this year - the transportation stocks were almost heroically bullish. Now, they seem radioactive...nobody wants to touch them. You can make the case for oil prices being the culprit, and you'd probably be right. However, it doesn't matter - the transportation are in the wake of a technical breakdown, and appear to be building some bearish momentum. The railroad downtrend seems to be particularly strong.
Last week, the Dow Jones Railroad Index (DJUSRR) gave up 4.9% to close at 340.88. The low of 339.96 from Friday is just a hair above this year's low of 336.36 (from the first week of January), and is the 9th losing week of the last 14. It was also the sixth losing week in a row, despite the fact the market indices have managed to at least score a couple of weekly wins during that time. Needless to say, the railroad stocks' downtrend is much like a train speeding down a hill - out of control. The most likely end to the trend is going to be a crash, much lower than where it is now. That said, it would be wise to wait for just a little more weakness from here, just to get under the lows from January. That's likely to spark the heavy selling needed to keep this downtrend fully in motion. If support at 336 breaks, we'll set a target of 275 for the Dow Jones Railroad Index (DJUSRR). Stops on this bearish bias come with a close back above the 200 day line, at 380.
By the way, most of the transportation industries (like airlines, trucking) don't look much better. Maritime stocks have managed to overcome most of the sector weakness though.
Dow Jones Railroad Index (DJUSRR) - Weekly
Some thoughts on basic materials. Although gold might be a viable exception, the basic materials stocks have been quietly sinking the last few weeks. It's not been terribly disastrous - only about a 1.7% loss so far this month, following last month's loss of 4.5%. However, considering a lot of traders were piling on stocks from this sector as a hedge against inflation as well as a weak market, it may be worth knowing the strategy is not panning out.
Although they're up today, the materials stocks are lagging, second only to energy stocks (another story in itself). They were also last week's biggest losers, and are next to last (in terms of performance) for the past month. Point being, the materials stocks aren't the safe haven they're supposed to be right now.
Dow Jones Basic Materials Index (DJUSBM) - Weekly
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.