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Yen Crosses Show Signs of Weakness
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/15/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Yen Crosses Show Signs of Weakness

CAD/JPY - CADJPY has continued to range trade near the top of a large symmetrical triangle that began in December 2005.  Daily CCI has turned down from above 100 - which often signals a turning point.  The hourly shows the triangle that the pair has traded in since 6/29 along with the final thrust through the top of the triangle.  This structure favors a move down.  This is in line with the larger triangle on the daily chart that the pair has formed over the last 9 months.  The larger triangle appears to be in a 5th wave down towards the bottom of the triangle near 100.00.  A rally above yesterday's high at 103.82 would target the 6/29 high at 104.40.

CHF/JPY - CHFJPY has ranged between 94.20 and 93.20 the last week.  A double top from the 7/17 and 8/10 highs at 94.32 and 94.22 provide resistance but there is little (if any) confidence in the downside until the trendline that stems from the 2/27 low at 87.63 is broken.  That line (on daily chart below) is currently at 93.12.  A push above the double top (94.22/32) exposes the 127% fibo of 92.19-78.89 at 95.75.

NZD/JPY - After rallying for 10 consecutive days, NZDJPY finally printed a red daily candle yesterday.  The pair was resisted by the confluence of the upper Bollinger band (daily) / upper channel line of the channel that has formed since the 5/15 low at 67.76.  Slight bearish divergence with RSI on the daily favors weakness going forward.  A rally above yesterday's high at 74.16 targets the 38.2% fibo of 87.07-67.76 at 75.10.  Fibo support is at the 38.2% of 70.29-74.16 at 72.68.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.