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Australian Dollar Crosses Continue Descent
By Jamie Saettele | Published  08/16/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Australian Dollar Crosses Continue Descent

AUD/CAD - AUD/CAD continues to consolidate after the rally to .8684.  Our view has been that this is a long term turn in AUDCAD (to the upside) and we'll continue to favor this.but.the possibility remains for a much deeper correction of the previous rally.  Initial support  is at the 8/8 low at .8494 with additional losses targeting the 61.8% fibo of .8119-.8684 at .8335.  Daily CCI has just dipped below 0, indicating that momentum is down.  The zone bound by the 8/11 and 7/31 highs at .8675/84 would be resistance on any rally attempts.

AUD/JPY - AUD/JPY looks like it's topping following the double top on 8/14 with the 2/3 high at 89.34.  This is also the 78.6% fibo of 91.32-82.06.  Evidence of a top includes the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily chart and the long wick on 8/14 at the upper Bollinger band (daily).  The pair has bounced from yesterday's low to challenge the 50% fibo of 89.35-88.32 at 88.84.  Strength above there exposes the 61.8% fibo at 88.96.  Initial support is at yesterday's low (88.32).  A fall below targets the confluence of the 8/1 low / 38.2% fibo of 83.46-89.35 at 87.11/15.

AUD/NZD - AUD/NZD has declined for 13 straight days (including today) and currently tests a supporting trendline that connects the 6/8 and 7/18 lows.  Daily CCI is below -100, indicating that the downtrend could be nearing an end.  Still, a break below the mentioned trendline would set sights on the 7/18 low at 1.1902.  A reversal at the trendline would keep in tact a potential ascending triangle, which would be long term bullish.  Initial resistance would be at the 7/24 high at 1.2134.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.