EUR/USD - EUR/USD has rallied to 1.2876 in early morning trading and it looks like the rally is getting tired.  Bearish divergence with RSI on the hourly is suggestive of a pending corrective move lower.  Potential fibo support of the 1.2693-1.2876 uptrend would be at 1.2806 (38.2%), 1.2784 (50%), and 1.2763 (61.8%).  This correction is likely the second wave of larger wave 3.  This means that wave 3 of 3 would follow in what could be exceptionally strong (up).  A push above 1.2876 encounters resistance from the trendline that connects the 1.2976 and 1.2911 highs.  That trendline is near the 1.2900 figure.  1.2693 must hold for this to play out.

USD/JPY - We remarked yesterday that "the decline should be rapid and go to at least the 8/4 low at 113.95."  We won't back away from that now, although there will certainly be corrections along the way.  Currently, the pair is testing the 50% fibo of 113.95-116.74 at 115.35.  RSI on the hourly is rising from below 30, suggesting that a correction may be in its early stages.  If so, then fibo resistance (of 116.74-115.17) is clustered from 115.77 to 116.40.  A continuation of weakness probes the 161.8% extension of 116.74-115.82 (from 116.37) at 114.87.  The 8/10 low at 114.65 is just below as well.  Daily MACD shows negative slope, RSI is below 50 (daily), and the pair is below the 20 day SMA - all confirming the larger bearish bias.

GBP/USD - Cable's rally from the 8/14 low at 1.8840 has been uninspiring.  The break of a contracting triangle should help determine future direction.  Right now, the pair is caught in the middle of the triangle and trading is choppy.  The 61.8% fibo of 1.8840-1.9023 at 1.8910 converges with the supporting line from the triangle at around 9 pm eastern time today (8/17).  If weakness continues from the top of the triangle, then this may be where the pair bottoms out.  A break above the triangle (the resisting line is near the psychological 1.9000) exposes the 8/10 high at 1.9090.

USD/CHF - USD/CHF looks just like the inverse of EURUSD (as it usually does).  The pair has encountered support at the 78.6% fibo of 1.2191-1.2444 at 1.2246.  Bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly favors a correction, which would send the pair higher.  Initial fibo resistance is at the 38.2% of 1.2444-1.2239 at 1.2317.  There is also a very short term trendline (from 1.2444) near 1.2300.  A break below today's low at 1.2239 encounters potential support from the double bottom at 1.2191.

USD/CAD - USD/CAD came close to touching the 61.8% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 at 1.1130 yesterday, bottoming at 1.1140.  Pair has rebounded in a choppy fashion to the 1.1200 figure.  The larger picture is still bullish.  The pair appears to be tracing out the 3rd wave of a correction from 1.1456.  Where might this correction of strength end before strength buying returns?  The 3rd corrective wave (beginning at 1.1319) would equal the first (1.1456-1.1170) at 1.1033.  This is significant because the 78.6% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 is at 1.1040 (just 7 pips away).  This fits with the notion that initial moves at turning points are often retraced a large amount before a continuation.  The initial move in this case is 1.0927-1.1456.

AUD/USD - As we have focused on in recent commentary, the longer term bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs and a resisting trendline from the 3/8 high at .7988.  Immediate resistance is at the high from yesterday at .7699 as well as the 8/10 high at .7713.  The recent decline from .7699 reversed course at the confluence of the 8/15 high / 38.2% fibo of .7583-.7699 at .7553.  A break above .7699 probes the mentioned .7713.  A failure and decline below .7553 targets additional fibo support at .7627 (61.8% of .7583-.7699).

NZD/USD - Kiwi broke above the trendline from.6443 yesterday but currently tests resistance from the 38.2% fibo of .7197-.5927 at .6412.  RSI on the daily is just below 70 and the rally from .5927 is in 3 waves and thus corrective - meaning that the larger downtrend may soon continue.  However, the point where the third wave (beginning at .6143) would equal the first (.5927-.6282) is .6498.  This is 80 pips from current price.  One final push higher before a resumption of the downtrend is one possible scenario.  A push above .6498 probes the 50% fibo of .7197-.5927 at .6561.  However, with extreme CCI on the daily (above 100) and RSI very near extreme, the likelihood of a sustained rally is not great.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.