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Economic Release Alerts for August 18
By John Kicklighter | Published  08/17/2006 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Economic Release Alerts for August 18

Japanese Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) (05:30 GMT; 01:30 EST)
Consensus:            n/a
Previous:                -2.2%

Outlook: Japanese nationwide department store sales over the month of July are expected to continue recent downward trend, as consumer spending on the islands nation remains sluggish. Annualized supermarket sales fell 2.9 percent in June, which registered its 12th consecutive contraction, while Tokyo department store sales fell 3.3% in June, also hinting at decreased domestic demand. Rising energy costs and a surprisingly high Tokyo CPI may also contribute to the expected continuation in the trend in domestic sales going into the new quarter.  However there may be room for cautious optimism for a potential rally in Japanese spending in the near-term as broad based economic growth prediction could translate into increased more liberal spending trends.  Another sign that is one foot in the positive was July's consumer confidence read which grew to 48.6 from 47.3 the month before.  While this is still net negative, it brings sentiment once step closer to encouraging the release of higher wages.

Previous: Department Store Sales in June continued the recent downward trend as historically low levels of consumer spending continue to weigh on domestic purchases. With Private Consumption holding steady in the Japanese economy, domestic sales are not expected to inhibit economic growth as foreign investment should be sufficient to steady the hand for now. However, the continuous lags in consumer spending could persuade the BOJ to keep a lid on policy tightening for the rest of the year.

German Producer Prices (JUL) (06:00 GMT; 02:00 EST)
                             (MoM)         (YoY)
Consensus:           0.4%            5.9%
Previous:               0.3%            6.1%

Outlook: Price Risks in July, as evidenced by the Producer Price Index, are expected to grow 0.4 percent on the month as rising oil prices make their impact. Crude oil prices last month jumped to an all-time high $78.40 per barrel.  Pressures from energy products seem to be quickly becoming the biggest burden to producers as many goods leaving the factory gate have acquired an added a hefty percentage to their final price for producers to recoup.  Further facilitating this pass through, faster than expected growth in Europe's largest economy increased foreign demand for durable goods, and a short-term spike in private consumption also looks to put pressure on producer prices in the near-term.

Previous: Germany's producer price index in June surprisingly jumped above market expectations of a 0.2 percent increase to post a 0.3 percent advance, which served to increase already high mid-term inflationary fears. Rising energy prices over mounting geopolitical factors have been the general culprit of sustained PPI growth in the first three months of the year, while faster than usual economic growth, as evidenced by rising GDP figures in Spain, France and Germany, have also been healthy contributors. Continued tightening by the ECB should look to control wild price fluctuations, but may also have a significant negative impact on long-term growth prospects.

Canadian Wholesales Sales (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:          0.4%
Previous:                0.9%

Outlook: Wholesale sales in the world's eighth largest economy are expected to grow by 0.4 percent for back-to-back gains, a statistic that has not been repeated since last year.  While the consumer is ailing amid a weakening labor market, business continues to spend excess cash that they have brought in via strong oil exports.  Manufacturing shipments surged by 1.9 percent in June when against tepid expectations for only 0.2 percent.  The pace of expansion is expected to ease, however, led by a greater-than-expected drop in a recent new motor vehicle sales report.  Overall, should domestic consumers and businesses fail to boost demand to fill-in for a diminishing exports, wholesales and the broader economy could suffer.

Previous: Canadian wholesale sales in the month of May rebounded from the previous month's 0.3 percent decline.  The 0.9 percent gain was over twice what economists had expected, to place a notional stamp on C$41.8 billion.  Gains were led by sales of automotive products, which grew 2.3 percent following three consecutive declines.  Also posting gains were building materials, especially metal products, offering signs of future expansion for an economy whose growth stalled in May.  The product group that suffered the most over the period was that of farm equipment, which fell 7.8 percent.  The sector has been lagging for some time as it has not seen gains the whole year.

University of Michigan Confidence Survey (AUG) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)
Consensus:            83.8
Previous:                 84.7

Outlook:  The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index, which provides investors with an idea of how consumers feel about spending their money, is forecasted to decline for a second straight month to 83.8 in August.  As the consumer represents one of the pillars of economic growth, the sentiment gauge's fall further and further from its historical average of 88.1 is worrisome considering the prominence of so many economic indicators that seem to be stalling.  Perhaps the biggest drawl on the consumer's wealth and optimism is the quickly deflating housing bubble.  July housing starts plummeted to a two year low while building permits for the same month dropped a staggering 6.5%, the most since 1999, as Americans backed away from the burden of mortgage rates that are the highest they have been in recent history.  There is potential for a rebound given June's expectations for future spending component which rose by 0.5 points to 72.5.  Also executive interviews from major retailers such as Wal-Mart and McDonald's Corporations claim that they are yet to see a major slowdown in sales.

Previous:  According to the University of Michigan's survey, US consumer confidence fell in July while escalating tensions in the Middle East amounted concern that energy prices would erode their disposable income.  The gauge fell to 84.7 from its sizeable jump to 84.9 in May as gasoline prices bested an average of $3 for a ten-month high.  The measurement of current conditions, which reflects financial confidence for the purchase of big-ticket items, fell to 103.5 from 105.  Despite higher unemployment, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9 percent in June which was the most since 2005.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.