UK Rightmove House Price (JUL) (23:01 GMT; 19:01 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: n/a n/a
Previous: 2.9% 10.6%
Outlook: UK Rightmove House Prices are expected to hold its positive trend through August, even though the previous month's surprising rate hike may have acted to have dampened demand. While higher interest rates and affordability should stabilize price risk to the upside in the long-term, recent survey data may indicate further inflation in house prices in the near-term, as higher financing rates are slowly disseminated into the economy. Lending support to this price report, the Hometrack survey for the same month reported a 0.6% increase, its fourth consecutive such rise. Furthermore, the RICS house price survey reported its highest level since May of 2004 as more and more surveyors reported higher prices. If the Bank of England stays on its tightening course and elects for another rate hike before year's end, the UK housing market could make its correction faster with clear evidence of lower prices in the first quarter of 2007 as affordability and dem and bow under record lending rates.
Previous: Prices for homes jumped 2.9% in July according to the Rightmove indicator. This translated to an annual change of 10.6%, marking the fastest pace of acceleration since February of 2005. The recent pickup in the housing market is also evidenced by July's Halifax numbers, which increased 3% on the year, suggesting that there is still enough resilience in the housing market in the face of deteriorating affordability to support such skyrocketing prices. Adding to demand in the throes of higher prices was the Bank of England's decision to hold rates steady the last 12 meetings as consumer demand was funded by improving employment and wages.
Swiss Producer & Import Prices (JUL) (07:15 GMT; 03:15 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.2% 2.8%
Previous: 0.0% 3.1%
Outlook: Producer and Import prices in Europe's eight-largest economy are expected to advance once again in July, which may prompt the Swiss National Bank to hold to its steady pace of quarterly rate hikes. The month's gains will mostly fall to oil, which formed an advance to new record highs as the conflict in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions in Alaska and the Caribbean region developed. Switzerland grew at its fastest pace in six year's in the first quarter while the Swiss National Bank raised its growth forecast for 2006 to 2.5 percent. Robust economic growth has allowed Swiss producers to pass on commodity-costs to the consumer who has for most of the year tolerated the burden as wages and employment have kept pace. Both the SNB and the ECB have raised rates three times since December, but energy-induced inflation and a six-year record pace of growth in the Euro-Zone are pressuring more.
Previous: Swiss producer and import prices unexpectedly rose in June, adding to speculation that the SNB will lift interest rates from their relatively low levels of 1.5 percent. The annual reading of 3.1 percent growth was the fastest such pace in over sixteen years. Import prices were particularly expensive, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier with the cost of oil products grew 25 percent in that period of time. Import prices were also the impetus behind the recent contraction in June's trade surplus, which fell to 935.5 million francs from 1.04 billion in May. With a consistent level of inflation under its belt the SNB, at their quarterly meeting, decided to raise the overnight lending rate 25 basis points.
Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: -0.6%
Outlook: Canadian retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% on stronger economic growth as signaled by consumer fundamentals and a resilient export market, which continues to benefit from oil shipments. An unseasonably warm summer was also factoring in as consumers responded to a 32-year low, 6.1% jobless rate by shopping for new clothing and electronics to stay cool in the heat. Another issue that is providing optimism was the halt to the central bank's, until then, steady regime of rate hikes. However, larger market forces are at play. Irksomely high gas and consumer reluctance to purchase durable goods in front of an impending tax cut could have simultaneously curtailed disposable income while hurting purchases of big-ticket items like vehicle sales.
Previous: Slumping Retail Sales in May were mainly the product of a lackluster performance in automobile sales for the period. Higher gasoline prices took a toll on new orders as consumers opted to postpone vehicle orders until prices at the pump began to show signs of moderating. Further, as Canadian firms responded to overseas demand that was pushing capacity restraints, the recent benefit to consumers of higher wages and fuller payrolls has largely led to more purchases of cheaper imports. This dichotomy of an expensive currency is in effect stifling Canada's global competition while at the same time leading oil-driven revenues to once again seep back out of the country. And at home, though higher energy costs dissuaded consumers from purchasing heavy domestic durable goods, as evidenced by a reduction in autos, it has lined consumers' pockets and prompted healthy demand for local items such as clothing, food and other non-durables.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.