CAD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CADJPY is again testing the high side of its 9 month range near 104.00.  The pair has in fact punctured the 104.00 figure today.  Additional gains target the resistance zone bound by the 6/29 and 12/6/2005 highs between 104.40 and 105.02.  That zone combined with CCI > 100 limits upside potential.  Further, bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favor weakness / consolidation going in the near term.  Initial support is at the 38.2% fibo of 102.69-104.09 at 103.56.  Weakness below there probes the 61.8% at 103.23.  Weakness below the supporting trendline from the 8/4 low at 100.96 could trigger heavier selling.  The trendline is at 102.85 and increases about 15 pips per day.   

CHF/JPY ââ,¬â€œ Continued divergence with oscillators on the daily at each new high in CHFJPY points to a downturn.  The pair has weakened today off of the upper Bollinger band on the daily in what could be the beginning of a turn.  Like the other JPY pairs, a daily close below a daily trendline is needed to instill confidence in the bearish scenario.  In this case, the trendline stems from the 2/27 low at 87.63 and currently is at 93.45.  The rally from 87.63 takes the form of an ending diagonal ââ,¬â€œ an inherently weak structure that is often followed by a violent move lower.  In any case, a break above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 94.89 high would target the 127% fibo of 92.19-78.89 at 95.76.

NZD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ NZDJPY continues to hold below the confluence of the upper Bollinger band (daily) / upper channel line of the channel that has formed since the 5/15 low at 67.76.  RSI on the daily is just below 70 and is turning down and exhibits bearish divergence at the recent high (74.50).  CCI is above 100 and flattening out.  Both suggest that upside potential is limited.  A push above the channel would target the 38.2% fibo of 87.06-67.76 at 75.12.  A break below the 8/14 and 8/15 lows at 73.18 would bolster the bearish outlook.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.