Australian Housing Prices (QoQ) (2Q) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
(QoQ) (YoY)
Consensus: 1.2% 4.4%
Previous: 1.0% 3.6%
Outlook: Economists predict Australian house prices will extend their long growth run by another 1.2 percent in the second quarter, putting the market up 4.4 percent from a year earlier. If in line, this will be the fastest annual pace in two years, suggesting Australia has yet to follow the trend of slowing real estate markets around the globe as borrowing costs rise. The gauge should find help from Julyââ,¬â"¢s tax cuts and exceptional wage-growth over the three months, up 4.1 percent from a year earlier. However higher wages may not have been enough. According to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia index on the matter, housing affordability declined sharply in the second quarter, down 5.4 percent from the first three months. While the median price continues to grow, the Reserve Bank of Australiaââ,¬â"¢s surprise-hike in interest rates will start chipping away at purchases and slow growth trends in Australianââ,¬â"¢s greatest source of wealth.
Previous: House prices in Australia grew one percent in the opening quarter, putting them up 3.6 percent from a year before. The second consecutive quarterly gain, in the wake of high interest rates, has annual growth at its highest pace in seven quarters. Despite the pressures, the Australia economy has been weathering the effect of higher interest rates as seen in the performance of retail sales this quarter. With consumers enjoying a jobless rate at thirty-year lows and $28 billion in tax-cuts, confidence is on the rise, and forcing the RBA to contemplate higher rates to stem further inflation.
Swiss Employment Level (2Q) (07:15 GMT; 03:15 EST)
(YoY) (People)
Consensus: n/a n/a
Previous: 0.7% 3.644M
Outlook: While now standing at its highest level of the past four years, Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s employment level has the potential to extend its run in the second quarter. The average unemployment rate fell substantially in the second quarter, which is now down to 3.3 percent, the lowest in over three years. On the rise since 2005, Swiss Gross Domestic Product grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the first quarter, which will also play a key role in business investment in skilled labor. Euro-Zone strength also continued in the second quarter, with its fastest growth in six years at 0.9 percent, suggesting increased labor demand in the Swiss exporting sectors. Should consumer strength continue, as indicated by rising UBS and SECO indicators, the Swiss National Bank may take into consideration a quickening of its quarterly pace of rate hikes.
Previous: The employment level in Europeââ,¬â"¢s eighth-largest economy rose by 3.644 million in the first three months of the year. A 0.7 percent gain from the previous quarter brought national payrolls to their highest levels in over four years as Switzerland continued to benefit from a strengthening Euro-Zone. Despite having the highest labor costs in Europe, up 1.2 percent between 2002 and 2004, Swiss companies expanded their hiring in the midst of surging exports and multi-year high consumer confidence. Such consumer strength threatens the inflationary outlook, however, while commodity-induced global inflation, as seen in producer and import prices, may have an easier time working its way into Switzerland.
German IFO ââ,¬â€œ Business Climate (AUG) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus: 104.8
Previous: 105.6
Outlook: Business climate sentiment in Europeââ,¬â"¢s largest economy, as measured by 7000 of Germanââ,¬â"¢s top business leaders, is expected to fall this month as escalating tensions in the Middle East, terror plots in the U.K, and renewed anxiety over sustained oil prices above $70/barrel weigh on economic confidence. Furthermore, the August current conditions index is expected to drop to 108.1 from 108.6 in July while the expectations index may slip to 101.5 from 102.6. The IFO survey results also face downside risk amidst indications of dissention between business leaders and government policies over issues such as healthcare reform and the impact of the VAT hike to 19% form 16% next year. Perhaps already marking the survey for its drop, a plunge in the ZEW figure for the same month has already revealed a prevailing pessimism amongst German investors. These results highlight possible weakness in the Euro-Zone economy over the medium-term and could signal slowing growth and less justification for higher rates.
Previous: Germanyââ,¬â"¢s IFO Business Climate Index fell slightly to 105.6 from 106.8 in July, but still managed to sit at a relatively high level marked by recovery. German firms were no longer quite as satisfied with their existing business situation as the Current Assessment Index dropped from 109.4 to 108.6 on fears of rising oil prices and concern over measures taken by the ECB to combat rising inflation. Their business expectations for the upcoming six months were clearly less optimistic than in June, as the conclusion of the World Cup caused a marked deceleration in retail sales.
US Durable Goods Orders (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Headline) (ex Transport)
Consensus: -0.5% 0.3%
Previous: 2.9% 1.1%
Outlook: Orders for US goods that are made to last at least three months are expected to have fallen 0.5 percent last month. The decline should come in the wake of a major dip in both airline and automotive transportation goods. Boeing orders, often a reliable lead for the whole read, reported a sharp decline from the previous months unusually high flow. For autos, Ford announced that it would cut second-half production by the most since 1980 amid tight demand. Non-transport durable goods however are expected to grow for the third straight month, indicating that momentum in manufacturing sector should help the economy that is plagued by a waning real estate market. While corporate profits remain strong, helped by lower domestic regulation and strong foreign demand, companies are spending more to improve efficiency.
Previous: Durable goods orders from U.S. factories rose by 2.9 percent in June, faster than original expectations of 2.0 percent growth and up from a revised 0.3 percent gain in May. The gauge including transportation, which is often volatile due to expensive commercial aircraft bookings, rose by only 1.1 percent as Boeing recorded orders or 135 planes in June compared to 33 in May. Furthermore, mainstream factories also rebounded, with orders for computers and electronics up 3.4 percent and communications equipment up 8.3 percent. Coming in at a slower pace of 0.4 percent were orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is often used to measure future business investment.
US New Home Sales (JUL) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -2.7% 1.100M
Previous: -3.0% 1.131M
Outlook: Sales of new home over the month of July are expected to have slowed to 2.7 percent to 1,100,000 units annually, displaying signs of an already existent and sustained housing slowdown in the US economy. Supporting a call for moderated housing sales was the MBA purchase index, which has dropped sharply since January of this year. And so does the decline in aggregate construction hours worked, which is provided in the monthly employment report. Median prices for homes are up 2.3 percent on the year while average prices are up 3.9 percent, which calls into play questions of affordability in the face of rising inflation. Weakness in new home sales may also be signaled by slower than expected housing starts data released earlier this month and by a strikingly fast rise in real inventories, which jumped to an all-time high of 566,000 residences in June. Should the housing contraction continue, expectations of growth and consumer spending from the Fed as well as the broad market will likely subside.
Previous: Home sales continued its recent downward trend in June with the housing industry revealing ever-clearer evidence of a deflating bubble. For the period, sales had actually fell 3.0 percent over the previous month, leaving the annual rate of sales at 1.131 million. According to the numbers, aggregate construction hours contracted back to previous lows while prices rose relentlessly despite weakening consumer demand. These factors have continued to pressure the housing industry. However, these conditions could prove temporary as seasonal trends suggest that the spring ââ,¬Ëœboomââ,¬â"¢ will cool off into the summer, fall and winter months.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.