Japanese National Consumer Price Index (JUL) (23:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -0.1% 0.6%
Previous: 0.0% 1.0%
Outlook: Much needed inflation in the Japanese economy is expected to take a break in July, with the monthly CPI predicted to report a 0.1 percent contraction while the core figure is anticipated to be unchanged from the previous month. Increases in energy prices, which have proven influential in most other nationââ,¬â"¢s consumer baskets, have been slow to truly impact consumer prices in Japan. The same is true for corporate service prices, which showed a decline of 0.1 percent over the same month. Signs of deflation in the Japanese economy will not bode well for the yen, as the Bank of Japan may question if further embarking on a strategy toward quantitative tightening is reasonable with global growth stalling and presidential elections in September. On the flip side, with retail sales steadily rising, increased consumer spending and domestic demand growing, the scenario may be just what the BoJ was hoping for.
Previous: Japanese CPI for the month of June fell flat on the month as increased energy costs and revived domestic consumption refused to infiltrate the markets with higher prices. Strong domestic demand for local goods and increased consumer spending has maintained minor inflationary pressures, but just enough to keep the term ââ,¬Ëœdeflationââ,¬â"¢ off the minds of the BoJ. Furthermore, upside risks in coming months may come from strong corporate earnings, which should spur further employment growth. With the labor market tightening, wage acceleration could start to become an issue and may subsequently trickle down into CPI.
German Consumer Price Index (AUG) (-- GMT; -- EST)
(QoQ) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.0% 1.8%
Previous: 0.4% 1.9%
Outlook: German inflation is expected to have slowed in August, paced by declines in the price of clothing and fuel. In fact, two regional CPI reads have already come in slower than expected. Clothing prices were 1.1 percent cheaper and the price of fuel was 1.7 percent down from the month prior according to one set of numbers. When measured according to the European Commissionââ,¬â"¢s standards, German consumer prices are expected to fall to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent, putting annual price growth within the European Central Bankââ,¬â"¢s target range. Yet risks to the upside are certainly present. Import prices in July, which were expected to fall to 5.5 percent on the year, jumped to 6.3 percent. Producer prices, another leading indicator of the CPI, grew 6.0 percent from a year earlier. Should these indicators prove influential for the consumer basket in August, the ECB have more to contemplate its quarterly pace of rate hikes.
Previous: Prices paid by consumers in Europeââ,¬â"¢s largest economy advanced by 0.4 percent in July for a 1.9 percent annual gain. Driving the gauge up were more expensive vacations and household bills. Oil prices, up 28 percent from a year earlier have been pushing up prices and causing concern among central bankers with earnings and cost of living disparities continue to support inflation. Import prices rose 5.6 percent annually in June while producer prices also bested expectations, adding further pressure to the coming monthsââ,¬â"¢ consumer price gauge. While the CPI remains somewhat contained, pricing pressures from the earlier stages of production continue to keep the ECB in check.
UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(QoQ) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.8% 2.6%
Previous: 0.7% 2.3%
Outlook: The U.K.ââ,¬â"¢s Economy is expected to grow by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, adding to speculation that the Bank of England will implement more rate hikes by the end of this year. The strength of the second quarter is seen specifically in retailing and banking, among other services sectors, which make up nearly two-thirds of the economy. Since the central bankââ,¬â"¢s decision to lower rates last August, and before the recent hike, consumer spending and housing, fully 60 percent of British wealth, had picked up. Recent housing data shows sensitivity in its own revival, which threatens the consumer amid ailing manufacturing. The Monetary Policy Committee however will pay heed to the nationââ,¬â"¢s fragile manufacturing sector, which is being squeezed by higher borrowing and commodity costs.
Previous: Europeââ,¬â"¢s second-largest economy grew at 0.7 percent in the first quarter, faster than expected and upwardly revised from an initial reading of 0.6 percent. At its best pace since 2004, the British economy has now expanded for 55 consecutive quarters. While higher oil prices helped undermine wages pressures from companies, consumer spending fell to 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous quarter. However investment made up for some of these losses, along with a housing revival and the World Cup, both of which kept retail spending strong. Inflationary pressures were still present, though, with the implied GDP deflator up 2.4 percent on the year in the first quarter. The fastest deflator pace in three years prompted the BoE to surprise the markets with a rate-hike in the beginning of August.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.