EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD still holds just above the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2938 at 1.2754, but the pair broke below a short-term trendline on the daily chart, and daily and hourly RSI turned bearish as well.  Price above 1.2750 keeps our previous bullish argument intact.  Weakness below 1.2750 would suggest that the pair is heading back to 1.2693.  Resistance is at yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at 1.2843.  If this is a 3rd wave rally, then price should exceed 1.2938 fairly soon.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The rally has pushed USD/JPY through the 78.6% fibo of 117.88 â�,�“ 113.95 at 117.05. With daily indicators in bullish territory and price above the 200 SMA, continued momentum higher could push the pair to the next key level of 118.70 - the 78.6% fibo of 121.38 â�,�“ 108.96. However, a failure to make that high could see a retracement back down to the 8/22 low of 115.81.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable remains in the corrective channel that began with the 8/8 high at 1.9144 and could complete a third corrective wave down at the supporting trendline.  Short term momentum is down as RSI is below 50 on the hourly.  Immediate support is at the 38.2% fibo of 1.8176 â�,�“ 1.9144 at 1.8775. A break above the resistance zone from 1.8971-1.9023 exposes 1.9144 as possible next target.        

USD/CHF â�,�“USDCHF has consolidated within a descending triangle.  As we said yesterday, â�,��"the pair has also formed a head and shoulders pattern that would complete on a break below the triple bottom at 1.2190.â�,�  The pair continues to hold the pattern but a break above the resistance trendline starting from the 3/10 high of 1.3229 could target the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.3284 â�,�“ 1.1917 and the 8/15 high at 1.2439/44. A break below 1.2190 exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2064.    

USD/CAD â�,�“ The picture has not changed from yesterday when we said, â�,��"[USD/CAD] appears to be tracing out the 3rd wave of a correction from 1.1456.  Where might this correction end before buying returns?  The 3rd corrective wave (beginning at 1.1319) would equal the first (1.1456-1.1170) at 1.1033.  This is significant because the 78.6% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 is at 1.1040 (just 7 pips away).  This fits with the notion that initial moves at turning points are often retraced a large amount before a continuation.  The initial move in this case is 1.0927-1.1456.â�,� The hourly charts show the pair holding at the support line of a downward channel drawn from the 7/21 low of 1.1261. An upmove from this line would reiterate our bullish bias.   

AUD/USD â�,�“ AUD/USD continues to consolidate in the .7670-.7700 zone, as it has for much of the month. The pair held just above the 61.8% fibo of .7790 - .7269 at .7591 this morning, but momentum could be slowing with daily RSI just turning below 50. Also, as we said yesterday, â�,��"the longer term bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs and a resisting trendline from the 3/8 high at .7988.â�,�

NZD/USD â�,�“ NZDUSD may be nearing the end of its recent uptrend and may be in the early stages of a turn, as the pair closed below support at .6360 yesterday. Hourly charts show the pair in a short-term downtrend with support drawn from the 8/17 low at .6374, but additional support lies at the 38.2% fibo of .6143 - .6439 at .6326. As we mentioned yesterday, â�,��"Weâ�,��"�ll need to see a break below the supporting trendline on the daily (from the .5927 low) before we have more confidence in the downside.â�,�

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.