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Is the Stock Market Rolling Over?
By Harry Boxer | Published  05/25/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
Is the Stock Market Rolling Over?

As indicated yesterday I thought the indices were likely to be lower today and they certainly were.  The day started out with the futures lower and the market opened on a gap down.  They slid all morning, consolidated into the lunch hour and then slid in the early afternoon. But when there was no downside follow-through they snapped back fairly strongly in the afternoon and then meandered sideways in the last 30-45 minutes.

However, net on the day, the indices did not get back into the plus column.  The Dow was down 46, the S&P 500 down 4, the Nasdaq 100 off 7 3/4, and the SOX about 4 3/4.

Advance-declines were more than 2 to 1 negative on New York and nearly that on Nasdaq.

TheTechTrader.com board had mostly fractional changes, but there were a few big changes.  Dynamic Materials (BOOM) roared ahead to a new all-time high over 41, closing near 40.48, up 3.06 on more than 5 million shares, continuing its phenomenal move of the last few days.  Junior energy stock Able Energy (ABLE) followed up on its recent explosion, up another 1.90 today on heavy volume, although that was about 1 1/2 points off the high.

China Yuchai (CYD) exploded late in the session today and was up 1.12 and broke out of a 5-month head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.  NovAtel (NGPS) continued its recent strength, up another 2 points today on 2.2 million, and Vasco Data Security (VDSI) soared ahead to nearly 10 today, closing at 9.80, a new multi-year high.

On the downside, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) closed uuder 19 at 18.96, down 84 cents, and continues its weakness.  JAMDAT Mobile (JMDT) after a conference call gave up its gains, reaching over 28, but closed at 26.86, down 1.16 today.  CryptoLogic (CRYP) was off 66 cents.

In the large-cap sector most stocks we follow were very marginally changed.  On the plus side, QLogic (QLGC) and Intel (INTC) were up small fractions.  On the downside, Juniper Networks (JNPR) was down 45 cents, Broadcom (BRCM) 58 cents and Nvidia (NVDA) 35 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, the indices appear to be potentially rolling over here, and the late snapback did not even more than retest resistance.  We'll see if the indices can continue lower or whether this is just another stop in the ongoing rally.

Today's lows, I think, will be key to the short-term direction.  Levels to watch are 1525 NDX and 1186 S&P.

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.