EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD has held above the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2938 at 1.2754 (on a closing basis) and rallied nearly 100 pips off of the 1.2723 low that was made Friday.  Resistance is just above at the 50% fibo of 1.2938-1.2722 at 1.2830.  The 61.8% fibo is at 1.2854.  It is possible that the decline from 1.2938 to 1.2723 is the first of a 3 wave corrective pattern to correct the 1.2456-1.2938 rally.  Thus, this rally from 1.2723 is the second wave and would be followed by a one more leg down before the resumption of the larger uptrend.  Support is at the 8/15 low at 1.2693 as well as the 61.8% fibo of 1.2456-1.2939 at 1.2641.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY tested the 7/25 high at 117.38 on Friday before falling back to current price (near 117.00).  The pair has distanced itself from the 200 day SMA, which is now support at 116.08.  Support before there is a the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 115.17-117.40 / trendline from 115.34 at 116.55.  A resumption of the uptrend encounters resistance at the 8/25 high at 117.40.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has traded within a contracting triangle since the 8/16 high at 1.9023.  Price is currently testing the high side of the triangle but a break higher exposes the 8/23 high at 1.8996.  A rejection of strength could see a return to the lower region of the triangle ââ,¬â€œ currently just below 1.8850.  Overbought RSI on the hourly favors weakness from here.  A break below the triangle probes the 8/18 low at 1.8775.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The range continues as the USDCHF has fallen from just below the 1.2400 figure to 1.2325 in early morning trading.  RSI is below 30 on the hourly and support is at the 50% fibo of 1.2181-1.2423 at 1.2302.  Bollinger bands are tight on the daily, so be wary of a break.  Weakness below the 1.2300 figure exposes the 61.8% fibo at 1.2274.  Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high at 1.2397 is immediate resistance.  As mentioned in recent reports, the head and shoulders on the daily tilts the bearish towards bears.  A break below the triple bottom at 1.2180/90 would complete the pattern and potentially lead to heavier selling.   

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ As we have expected, USDCAD continues to weaken.  The pair appears to be tracing out the 3rd wave of a correction from 1.1456.  Where might this correction end before buying returns?  The 3rd corrective wave (beginning at 1.1319) would equal the first (1.1456-1.1170) at 1.1033.  This is significant because the 78.6% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 is at 1.1040 (just 7 pips away).  This fits with the notion that initial moves at turning points are often retraced a large amount before a continuation.  The initial move in this case is 1.0927-1.1456.  USDCAD fell to 1.1049 last week and Fridayââ,¬â"¢s candle is a spinning top at the lower Bollinger band (daily).  The evidence points to a rally from nearby levels.  However, a break below 1.1040 exposes the 6/12 low at 1.0960. 

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ As we have focused on in recent commentary, the longer term bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the break of the supporting trendline from.7270.  On Friday, the pair tested the low side of the recent range at .7549 before recovering slightly this morning to .7594.  Short term momentum is again down as RSI is sloping downward.  A break below .7549 exposes the 50% fibo of .7270-.7713 at .7491.  Price also trades below the 20 day SMA, which is now also turning down.  Resistance is at the 61.8% fibo of .7642-.7549 at .7606.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Both daily and short term momentum is down as daily CCI has declined below 100 and RSI on the hourly is declining from just below overbought.  The triple top at .6410/39 limits upside potential but the bearish argument would improve with a daily close below the trendline from .5927 (see chart below).  A break below the trendline could trigger a move to the 61.8% fibo of .6143-.6439.  Initial resistance is at the 8/23 high at .6418.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.