CAD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CADJPY has soared past the previous high of 105.02 (December 2005) but printed a red candle for the first day in 6 yesterday.  The break above the triangle is likely the beginning of a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave bulls sequence that began in February 2004.  Resistance going forward and a possible terminal points for this 5th wave are Fibonacci levels of 105.02-97.10 at 107.17 (127%), 108.06 (138.2%), and 109.93 (161.8%).  Initial support is at todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 105.06.

CHF/JPY ââ,¬â€œ CHFJPY continues to move higher, albeit in a choppy and unconvincing fashion.  How much longer will this choppy advance continue?  The former supporting trendline from the 2000 low is a good point of reference.  The extension of this line intersects the 138.2% fibo of 92.19-78.89 at 97.20 in mid October.  We will watch this area around this time with great interest.  A daily close below a daily trendline is needed to instill confidence in the bearish scenario.  In this case, the trendline stems from the 2/27 low at 87.63 and currently is at 93.64.

NZD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ NZDJPY has just broken above an upward sloping channel that began in May.  The pair has tested the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 87.04-67.76 / 200 day SMA at 75.12 today.  This resistance combined with bearish divergence on the daily suggests that the pair is topping.  However, only a break below the 8/24 low at 73.73 would instill confidence in the downside.  A break higher exposes the 3/14 high at 75.99.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.