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Impressive Rally in Stock Market, But Additional Technical Work Ahead
By Harry Boxer | Published  08/29/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Impressive Rally in Stock Market, But Additional Technical Work Ahead

We had a very interesting, volatile day.  The indices did close to the plus side nominally, but at the highs for the day after a very strong late rally followed the release of the FOMC minutes.

The day started out with an early move up and a very sharp sell-off which bounced off of important 3-day support.  They took that out nominally just before lunch hour.  But when they failed to follow through on the downside, the market rallied slowly back.  It looked like a corrective rally, and appeared the market may be vulnerable to further downside, but the FOMC minutes sparked a rally that was very strong, with the NDX moving about 20 points in the last hour and a half and the S&P 500 moved about 10 points in the same period of time.

They closed near the high for the day going away and right at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s highs on the S&P 500 and NDX as well.  So, weââ,¬â"¢ll have to see if we get a follow-through tomorrow, but the day did close on a very strong note.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 18, about 70 points off the session lows.  The S&P 500 was up 2 Ã,½, about 9 points off the low, and the NDX 21 points off the low, up 3.36 today.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) led the way, rallying from 436 to 446, nearly 10 points and closing up 7.30 on the day.

The technicals completely reversed.  Advance-declines were positive by 2 to 1 on the NYSE and a like amount on Nasdaq.  Up/down volume was more than 2 to 1 position with about 1 1/3 billion traded on New York.  Nasdaq traded more than 1.5 billion with a 2 to 1 positive ratio as well.

So, a healthy day on the Street, with a late rally that brought them back from the abyss.

TheTechTrader.com board  was mostly higher, but fractionally so.  There were some point-plus gainers.  ViroPharma (VPHM) exploded 1.44 on more than 14 million shares, on positive news. PW Eagle (PWEI) advanced 1.04, DXP Enterprises (DXPE) 1.29, and Dynamic Materials Corp. (BOOM) jumped 78 cents.  Fuel Tech (FTEK) had a big day, up 29 cents, and All Scripts Healthcare (MDRX) gained 51 cents.

On the downside, NVE Corp. (NVEC) gave back 75 cents, Baidu.com (BIDU) 58 cents, Apple Computer (AAPL) 50 cents, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 38 cents, and U.S. Global Investors (GROW) 53 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices did well to hold support despite nominal breaks this morning, and closed very strongly near yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s highs but at key resistance.  Further progress from here could really explode the market, but failure could lead to some additional pullback and retesting at the very least.

It remains to be seen what direction theyââ,¬â"¢ll take. Todayââ,¬â"¢s rally was impressive, but it has some additional work to do to prove its merits.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.