"Things do seem to be getting worse very quickly. Free-fall is a strong word, but I think it's the right one to use here," says Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

But most Americans look into the future, see a weakening property market, and fear not. They have been told that soft housing prices pose no problems for the rest of the economy. They have no reason to doubt that it is true; no reason to squint and try to see further. They dread neither slump nor boom...neither war nor peace. They believe everything will be managed by the authorities so as to do no great damage to the homeland.

But you typically don't lose money (or make it) when things happen as expected. No one plans on losing his life savings. It comes as a surprise - along with sudden death, financial crashes, and other crises.

Where will the surprise come from this time?

We wonder, because things that are expected present few opportunities and few catastrophes. When an old man dies, people gather at his grave almost with relief. Finally, it is over. His affairs are usually sorted out long before he reaches room temperature. So, the book can be closed and put down. No more chapters, footnotes, or postscripts. Time to move on.

But when a young man dies, it is as if the printer had made a mistake. The story is unfinished. We turn the page expecting to find out what happens, and there is nothing there.

The young man typically dies suddenly and unexpectedly, leaving crops in the field and his widow and children in the house. While the widow grieves, grasping neighbors move their fences, taking what was once his...and banks wonder if his mortgage will be repaid.

"I can't tell you how hard it was," explained a neighbor, widowed before she was 40, with five children, one of whom was severely retarded.

"Suddenly, everything changed. My husband had borrowed money to modernize the farm. But I really didn't know how to pay it back. And then, farm prices were falling. And our farm hands all demanded more money. And nobody would give me any time or credit because they all thought I would fail and have to sell the place. It seemed like everyone was angling for something...and I had my children to look after. Those were the most difficult years of my life."

If there are going to be difficult years in America, however, Americans are not worrying. They recall the last recession in 2001, almost fondly. Even before they had forgone a single Krispy Kreme donut...or darned a single sock...the recession was over. And on its heels came the biggest boom in housing prices the world had ever seen.

Recession? The last one was no trouble; why should they worry about the next?

The expected slump poses no danger to them. But what if the slump is not what Americans expect? What if the softening of housing prices is not so benign? What if the roof really does cave in?

Ah...that would come as a shock.

The Guardian took up the idea this week, quoting Paul Ashworth:

"House prices have been rising at unprecedented double-digit rates in recent years, giving homeowners massive windfalls and supporting a wave of investment in new construction. However, the number of unsold new homes is now at a 10-year high."

Ashworth reckons that 30 percent of all the jobs created since the end of the last recession in 2001 - 1.4 million - have been in sectors related to the housing market boom, from construction to DIY stores. As the boom runs out of steam, he calculates that 73,000 jobs a month will be lost.

And, also in the Guardian, Stephen Roach warns, "for a wealth-dependent U.S. economy, the bursting of another major asset bubble is likely to be a very big deal."

He notes, "With U.S. fiscal and trade imbalances now larger than five years ago, the fallout for the rest of the world could be more devastating than the aftermath of the dotcom boom."

Of course, we have no more idea than anyone else. But at least we know what to look for - the unanticipated. What analysts broadly anticipate is a "soft landing" in housing...and no landing at all in stocks. What is unanticipated is a hard crash. Will it come? We don't know. But at least we haven't failed to anticipate it.

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.