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Intraday Trading Higher Risk Lately
By Toni Hansen | Published  08/31/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Intraday Trading Higher Risk Lately

Good day! Wednesday was a draw for the market. The indices were fairly extended following Tuesday's late day rally and had a difficult time deciding just what to do with themselves. After hitting Monday's highs into the close, the market continued to correct off that resistance into the open. That pullback didn't last long, however, before finding support in the 5 minute 20 sma support zone in the Nasdaq Composite. The action throughout the remainder of the day was more erratic, although support and resistance levels on the 15 minute charts held well.

 

To give you an idea of just how slow things were, the S&P 500 ($SPX) closed with a loss of only 0.01 point at 1304.27. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. ($DJI) both rose slightly. The Nasdaq gained 13.43 points while the Dow rose 12.97 points. Volume was still light with only 1.27 billion traded on the NYSE and 1.65 billion on the Nasdaq. Advancers versus decliners in the NYSE by 5 to 3 and 18 to 11 in the Nasdaq.

All three indices broke through Tuesday's highs into the 11:45 ET reversal period but then the strong upside pace was followed by a return of the sellers. The downside increased around 11:30 ET and the weaker S&Ps soon retested the morning lows. The selling pace slowed between 12:00 and 12:30 ET and then the indices began to creep higher once more into the 14:00 reversal zone.

A great deal of overlap from bar to bar on the 5 and 15 minute charts created more gradual upside into the early afternoon. This allowed for a strong flush into 14:30 ET as the indices pulled into the lower end of the day's range. The flush into lows did not last long. Within a few minutes the market was retesting prior 5 minute and and that upside continued into the 15:30 ET reversal period when the market rested.

Lately the intraday action has been higher risk. Swingtrades are going very well, but there are fewer strong intraday patterns due to the time of the year as kids head back to school and folks enjoy the remainder of the summer.  I am looking for greater activity on Thursday following the early morning economic data, but the indices are still at a lot of risk from pulling back into the range despite closing at highs on Wednesday. Friday will be a lot slower since many will be heading out for the weekend. The afternoon should be the slowest.

Economic Reports and Events
Aug. 31: Initial Claims 8/26 (8:30 am), Personal Income and Personal Spending for July (8:30 am), Aug. Chicago PMI (10:00 am), July Factory Orders (10:00 am), July Help-Wanted Index (10:00 am)
Sept. 1: Aug. Auto and Truck Sales (12:00 am); Aug. Ave. Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (8:30 am), Aug. Michigan Sentiment-Rev. (9:50 am), July Construction Spending (10:00 am), Aug. ISM Index (10:00 am)
Sept. 4: Market closed for Labor Day holiday
Sept. 5: -
Sept. 6: Productivity-Rev. for Q2 (8:30 am), ISM Services for Aug. (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 9/1 (10:30 am), Fed's Beige Book (2:00 pm)
Sept. 7: Initial Claims 9/2 (8:20 am), Wholesale Inventories for July (10:00 am)
Sept. 8: Consumer Credit for July (3:00 pm)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stock's earnings date before holding a position overnight.
Aug. 31: CHT, CIEN, DG, DLM, HRB, HNZ, JOYG, KWD, OVTI, SYX, TIF, PAY, ZLC
Sept. 1: VIP
Sept. 4: -
Sept. 5: MBT
Sept. 6: AZPN, HOV, MATK
Sept. 7: FCEL, JOSB, NSM, SHFL, COO, UTIW
Sept. 8: -
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.