EUR/USD – The EURUSD continues to oscillate around the 20 day SMA with volatility compressing greatly as evidenced by the by the near uniformity of the 10 and 30 day SMA. Over the last tow sessions however, the unit appears to have carved out an upside bias. Friday’s reversal candle bodes well for the longs but first test comes at today’s Asian session low of 1.2838. If the pair can hold that level further upside to the 8/21 high of 1.2938 seems likely. A turn lower doesn’t quite negate the upside momentum but certainly curtails it. Only a break of Friday’s low of 1.2753 would be truly damaging to the bull’s case carving out an ugly head and shoulders pattern on the dailies.

USD/JPY – A sharp down candle at the start of the week that already broke prior week’s lows should put a smile on yen’s bulls faces and suggest further weakness in USD/JPY to come if the pair can finish out the European and North American sessions near 116.45. Technically, the pair looks ripe for a turn with 117.50 acting as an iron lid to any upside action while RSI starts to dip through the 50 boom/bust level.

GBP/USD – Like a coiled spring the pound remains tightly wound between the 1.9000-1.9200 levels as both bulls and bears square off to a standstill. The price action indicates the formation of ascending  triangle which is typically a bullish formation suggestive of continuation to the upside.  However, present day evidence is inconclusive and traders would be well advised to wait for a breakout beyond the recent swing highs of 1.9144 before initiating any possible longs.

USD/CHF – The price action in the Swissie appears as neutral the country it represents with pair essentially bouncing in arrange between 1.2200 on the low side and 1.2550 to the top. The RSI has flat lined as well suggesting little trading interest either way. Friday’ s reversal candle presses to the downside but unless and until the lows of last week at 1.2231 are taken out the Swissie remains dormant.

USD/CAD – The Big Dollar may have found support at the 1.1050 level as loonie was one of the few  currencies to weaken against the greenback on Friday. The next level of attack for dollar longs is the highs from Thursday at the 1.1125 region. With RSI pointing upward they may have good chance getting there. However, a break of the 1.1050 level is highly damaging to the dollar bulls and opens up the possibility of a run all the way to the 1.0900 zone.

AUD/USD – The Aussie takes out the critical .7700 figure in Asian trade tonight and push to the .7725 level suggests that the month long consolidation range may be broken  to the upside. Further resistance doesn’t  come in to play until 5/11 swing high at .7791 at which point the pair would face the challenge of forming a double top. Until such time however, the path is clear for a bullish push to the upside.

NZD/USD – Having made a 600 point run from its swing low of 5950, the Kiwi looks in needs of a rest. The pair is dojing at the .6550 level while RSI treads above the 70 Overbought level. A take out of today’s  high at 6580 brings the bulls back to the party but a turn lower with concomitant drop in RSI below 70 suggests a turn in the making with first zone of support at 38.2% Fibo of .6350    

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.