EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD continues to compress in a tight range.  Tight Bollinger bands on the daily indicate breakout potential with 1.2880 as resistance and 1.2753 as support.  A triangle has formed following the 8/10 high at 1.2911.  The apex is at 9/25.  Following the theory that price typically breaks through its triangle two-thirds to three-fourths of the way through the triangle, we would expect a breakout to occur anywhere from 9/11 to 9/15.  With the trend leading up to the triangle, we maintain a cautious bullish bias and are looking for a thrust higher to complete the uptrend from 1.1640.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ As expected, the USDJPY has rebounded.  There are 5 waves down from 117.48, which forces a bearish bias.  It appears that a 3 wave corrective move is nearing an end with one more push higher towards fibo resistance at 116.52 (50% of 117.48-115.55) or 116.74 (61.8% of 117.48-115.55).  Resistance is also connoted by the 20 day SMA at 116.42.  Daily oscillators are declining and keep the intermediate term bias bearish.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable is at the confluence of the 8/29 low / 61.8% of 1.8775-1.9091 at 1.8896.  A short term look shows bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly as well as 5 waves down from 1.9079.  This evidence favors a short term bottom and a rebound to test fibo resistance at 1.8965 (38.2% of 1.9079-1.8895).  A break above there exposes the 61.8% at 1.9009.  Our larger bias is a bearish one due to COT positioning and the completion of a 5 wave bullish sequence at 1.9144 (from 1.7046).

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF trades within a triangle (just as EURUSD does).  The pair is nearing the apex of the triangle and trading is confined to a tight range.  The range is so tight that the 10, 20, and 50 day SMAs are within 7 pips of one another.  The upper end of the triangle is near 1.2368 and the lower end near the 1.2300 figure.  A break above the triangle argues for a test of the 8/25 high at 1.2323 and a break below argues for a test of the 8/21 low at 1.2227.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD digests gains to 1.1137 as the pair has traded in a 16 pip range so far today.  The bias is bullish as long as 1.1028 holds.  Fibo support is just below at the 38.2% fibo of 1.1028-1.1137 at 1.1095.  The confluence of the 61.8% fibo / 9/1 high at 1.1070/74 would be additional support.  The bullish bias is bolstered by a daily close above the 20 day SMA (at 1.1153).

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD has made a double top (recent high is slightly higher) with the 8/10 high at .7713.  In addition, bearish divergence with daily oscillators favor a reversal to the downside.  The beginning of that move lower may be underway as the pair has retreated about 40 pips from the .7718 high.  Supporting the reversal idea is the presence of the upper Bollinger band (daily).  Meaningful support is not until the confluence of the trendline from .7549 / 38.2% of .7549-.7718 at .7653.  There is a trendline from .7549 just below current price at .7670.  A break below there instills confidence in bears.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi has retraced nearly half of its .6580-.6438 decline (the 50% fibo is at .6509).  Additional resistance is at the 61.8% fibo at .6526.  A top may be in place at .6580 as both CCI and RSI are declining from their extreme levels (100 and 70).  If this is the case, then Kiwi may reverse recent strength at one of the aforementioned fibo levels and head lower.  Hourly RSI is near 70 (65 right now), which supports this idea.  A push above .6580 negates the bias.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.