Australian Unemployment Rate (AUG) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
(Rate) (Employment Change)
Consensus: 4.8% 10,000
Previous: 4.8% 57,000
Outlook: The unemployment rate in Australia during the month of August is likely to have held steady at a stellar 4.8 percent. Additionally, the number of people employed is anticipated to climb 10,000 as record commodity prices and unyielding Asian demand have given companies incentive to hire extra workers to expand mines, railways, and ports. Previous gains in employment sparked concern about worker shortages, and could be an issue again upon release of the August report. Furthermore, the tightening labor market could put more pressure on elevated inflation figures of 4 percent, as wage growth has already been stoked in some industries. Although the RBAââ,¬â"¢s September pause on rates and slower second quarter growth have tempered expectations for further policy tightening, relentless inflation driven by employment growth could force the central bank to reconsider later in the year.
Previous: The Australian labor market surged in the month of July as payrolls jumped 50,000 versus expectations of a mere addition of 5,000. This influx of workers brought the unemployment rate down to a 30-year low of 4.8 percent from 4.9 percent in July. The mining sector took the lead in adding staff as companies expanded in order to meet Asian demand. Additionally, retail stores took on more employees as sales have benefitted from increased domestic consumption. With the unemployment rate narrowing so much, labor scarcity became a concern as businesses found it to be a restraint on their productivity and normal operations. Despite two 25 basis point rate increases in May and August, it appeared that policy tightening by the RBA has had little impact on the economy.
Swiss Gross Domestic Production (QoQ) (Q2) (05:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 0.9%
Outlook: Swiss growth could ease to 0.8 percent in the three months ending June and subsequently bring the annual rate down to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent. These figures would still show substantial economic expansion and will likely be led by exports, as Germany, Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s largest trading partner, also ran on a strong pace of growth in the second quarter. Not to be forgotten, domestic consumption was also a robust contribution for the period, as low unemployment and high consumer confidence propelled retail sales at a steady clip. Should GDP prove to highlight Swiss economic health, the likelihood of further SNB hikes increases notably. The only downside risk to policy tightening is low CPI, which still remains below the central bankââ,¬â"¢s target of 2 percent.
Previous: Economic growth in Switzerland accelerated at a breakneck pace of 0.9 percent in the opening quarter of the year, pinning the annual rate at a solid 3.5 percent. Expansion proved to be extraordinarily broad-based as everything from domestic demand to manufacturing to exports improved. Furthermore, higher corporate earnings prompted companies to hire additional workers in order to meet demand, which helped to boost employment figures. Given the health of the economy, companies were able to pass on elevated energy costs, as oil prices held near record highs, and consumers subsequently felt the effects. The combination of increased CPI and improved GDP lent the SNB scope to hike rates in March and June, bringing the Swiss target rate to a median of 1.50 percent.
German Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) (10:00 GMT; 06:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: -0.4%
Outlook: German industrial production could see a correction of 0.5 percent in July after posting a disappointing 0.4 percent contraction the month prior. Robust demand domestically should keep the figure buoyant, as corporate investment and hiring boosted consumer spending. Additionally, exports growth likely followed through as foreign economies were moving full steam ahead. Sustained high energy costs and slower economic expansion, however, could begin to takes its toll on spending within Europe and, due to global faltering, abroad in coming months. Further down the line, the VAT hike from 16 percent to 19 percent in 2007 could cause spending by German businesses and consumers alike to weaken and force producers to reduce output.
Previous: Industrial production in the Euro-zoneââ,¬â"¢s largest economy unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in the month of June after surging 1.5 percent in May. A stronger euro diminished export growth and higher energy costs hurt profit margins, which subsequently forced German factories to reduce production of machinery and consumer goods. Rising interest rates in the Euro-zone also had an effect on businesses, as borrowing costs hindered investments by producers and lessened domestic demand.
Bank of England Rate Decision (11:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
Consensus: 4.75%
Previous: 4.75%
Outlook: The BoE is predicted to leave rates unchanged after having hiked by 25 basis points at its last meeting. Analysts say that bank officials are unlikely to raise rates given that their most recent hike was very much a surprise move. With 49 of 49 polled analysts predicting no change according to Bloomberg News, it appears that consensus estimates have effectively ruled out the possibility of a second consecutive hike. It bears mention, however, that futures traders have priced in a rate hike by the end of the year. As such, there are two distinct scenarios that are likely to play out through tomorrowââ,¬â"¢s meeting.
- The first, most likely, scenario is that the bank will leave rates unchanged but reinstate that there exist risks to price stability and that they may raise rates in upcoming meetings. Such a move would likely produce relatively little change in the currency.
- The second, less likely scenario is that they leave rates unchanged but take a much more neutral stance on the future of monetary policy. This would almost certainly produce declines in GBP pairs.
While it is of course feasible that they could raise rates in tomorrowââ,¬â"¢s meeting, it is highly unlikely given that they surprised by raising at their last. A rate hike would, of course, produce a sharp rally in the British Pound across all pairs. We will wait until the minutes of tomorrowââ,¬â"¢s meeting are released for further confirmation of the above scenarios.
Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (AUG) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 61.3
Previous: 60.1
Outlook: Analysts predict that the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose slightly from 60.1 to 61.3 in August. With the previous release showing substantive declines in the Employment and Prices Paid components, many expect that the overall index is due to rebound. It serves to mention, however, that July employment and inflation results proved bearish for the Canadian economy, as the country in fact lost 5,500 jobs in July while core inflation remained at -0.2%. We look to tomorrowââ,¬â"¢s release to see if this trend can in fact reverse given recent declines.
Previous: The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index came in well above expectations in July, posting a 60.1 reading versus a consensus estimate of 53.0. Despite the surprise higher, however, it printed below the previous read of 62.2 as key sectors declined on the month. Notable component changes include the Employment index, which fell from 65.1 to 60.4 on the month. According to the same report, the Prices index likewise fell nearly 5 points from 72.4 to 67.6 in July. The material declines in these key sectors underline moderating economic expansion across the economy. Indeed, the number remains well below its 3-month average of 65.8. We look to future announcements to better predict the future of Canadian economic trends.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.