EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD did slip below the 8/25 low at 1.2723 and has traded in a tight range (1.2697-1.2756) since.  The short term picture is clearing up now as summer has ended.  As focused on the past few weeks, 1.2456 to 1.2938 is in a 5 wave bullish sequence and the subsequent decline to current levels is completing a third wave (of a correction labeled a-b-c).  This fits with the idea that the end of corrections tend to be violent affairs.  The door is open for the pair to register one more low â�,�“ possibly at the daily support line from 1.1825 (2/27) at 1.2680.  Additionally, corrective wave c (beginning at 1.2874) would equal corrective wave a (1.2938-1.2723) at 1.2659.  This 1.2660/80 zone is the ideal bottoming area for EURUSD and weâ�,��"�ll look for a rally from there.  A push above 1.2769 suggests that a bottom is already in place.  Bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly favors a rally attempt as well.

USD/JPY â�,�“ USDJPY is at a supporting trendline from 108.96 (5/17) but probability favors a break lower.  The 108.96-117.88 rally (May to July) was in 5 waves and has been followed by 2 waves (one down to 113.95 and one up to 117.48).  The completion of the correction requires one more wave down to at least 113.95 and weakness in recent days may be the beginning of this move.  117.05 needs to hold as resistance in order for the bearish scenario to play out.  Bollinger bands on the daily are tight and favor a breakout; a move lower could be violent.  The 10 day SMA is turning (negative slope), which favors the downside.  Prices below the 9/5 low at 115.55 strengthen the above idea.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable looks similar to EURUSD in that it is approaching a supporting trendline on the daily but upside potential does not seem as great (due to primarily wave count).  The trendline is at about 1.8640.  One more move lower correlates with the EURUSD scenario as well.  Divergent oscillators on the hourly favor a rally attempt after a new low is registeredâ�,�“ potentially from the mentioned trendline.  Former support at 1.8775 (8/18 low) is now resistance and a push above there turns prospects more bullish.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF is right at resistance from the confluence of the 8/11,8/14,8/15 highs / 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2180 / upper Bollinger band on the daily at 1.2436/44.  That much resistance argues for a drop in the USDCHF from current levels but a daily close above 1.2444 negates our immediate bearish bias.  A head and shoulders pattern is still visible on the daily chart as well.  A push to a new high above 1.2462 would complete a correction from 1.2182 and create divergence with oscillators on the hourly.  Strength could end at 1.2469 (this is where c = a (1.2227 + (1.2403-1.2181))).  Additional strength exposes the 1.2500 figure.

USD/CAD â�,�“ We mentioned yesterday that â�,��"The pair has held in a tight range near the 78.6% fibo of 1.1028-1.1138 since 13:00 GMT yesterday.  This may be a base that leads to a move higher.â�,�  We got that move higher to just above the 1.1100 figure but have yet to see any follow through.  We still want to see a push through 1.1137 before getting aggressively bullish.  We maintain cautiously bullish against the bottom of the range near 1.1040 (1.1028 is the low).  Again a break above 1.1137 instills confidence in the upside.

AUD/USD â�,�“ Our longer term bearish bias remains but the move from .7721 looks stretched as it has run into support from a series of daily lows (.7549 to .7563).  That fact combined with the divergent oscillators at the recent low (.7558) favors a rally attempt (that may have already started).  Fibo resistance begins at .7620 (38.2% of .7721-.7558).

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwiâ�,��"�s decline may also be coming to end.  RSI has rallied above 30 3 times in the last 4 days on the hourly.  The first two crosses above 30 were fake outs â�,�“ perhaps the third one is the real deal.  The decline from .6580 is in 3 (a-b-c) waves (see chart below).  The 3rd (begins at .6502) nearly equals the first (.6580-.6438).  They would equal each other at .6360 and todayâ�,��"�s low is at .6372.  One more low below .6372 would create divergence with hourly oscillators and open up the door for a more convincing rally.  A trendline on the daily from .5927 is at current price and gives bulls hope.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.