New Zealand Terms of Trade (QoQ) (2Q) (22:45 GMT; 18:45 EST)
Consensus: -0.5%
Previous: 1.1%
Outlook: New Zealand terms of trade, a measurement of how many units of imports can be afforded given the average price of exports, is expected to decrease to 0.5 percent in the second quarter from the previous period’s 1.1 percent rise. The expected unfavorable change is the result of soaring energy prices coupled with a weak domestic currency that should cause the cost of imports to surge. Imports are expected to have risen about 6 percent from the first quarter, which would be the biggest gain in more than five years. Furthermore, the insatiable spending appetite of New Zealand consumers is expected to pull more foreign goods into the country, adding volume to the import figure. Exports, however, are predicted to surge 6 percent in the quarter on higher prices for food and aluminum and could create upside risk for the trade figure.
Previous: Terms of trade for the first quarter improved 1.1 percent as a 1.5 percent increase in import prices was handily outpaced by a 2.2 percent jump in export prices. Mounting energy costs added to rising imports, which were quickly accepted by gas thirsty New Zealanders. Agricultural exports, the lifeblood of Kiwi shipments abroad, benefited from strong Asian regional demand and strong prices. With inflation being fueled by higher energy prices, the RBNZ may be forced to forgo rate cuts as growing imbalances continue to plague the country.
UK Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(Input) (Output)
Consensus: -0.5% 0.2%
Previous: 1.1% 0.2%
Outlook: UK producers’ margins are expected to have widened in August as economists predict input prices contracted for only the second time in 20 months while output prices hold steady. Expectations for a drop in the average price paid for raw materials last month seems well founded. From July, costly crude oil prices dropped nearly 14 percent. Additionally, metals were less expensive for the same period; gold eased 10 percent and copper fell 13.5 percent. One expense that was unshakeable for the period however was borrowing costs. The Bank of England raised rates twice this year in an effort to contain a resurgence in consumer price indices. While costs were sinking, the ability to pass the buck on consumers was questionable. An earlier released manufacturing health survey for the month of August reported a contraction from 53.6 to 53.1, but the CBI Industrial and Distributive Trade Trends both improved for the period. A trimming of costs at the factory door therefore may count more on demand. Orders from abroad were likely stifled by a more expensive currency while sharp drops in both the GfK and Nationwide Consumer Confidence reads pegged local consumer trends. If prices start to ease, the BoE may find less need to hastily counteract a sudden rise in the CPI in the months ahead.
Previous: Prices received at the factory gate rose 0.2 percent for the month of July and accelerated 2.8 percent on the year. This increase in prices received from customers reflected UK manufacturers’ efforts to pass soaring energy costs off of their books. The price per barrel of crude oil reached a record high in New York, pressuring the sector, which has struggled to pick itself up from its poor performance over the past few years. Of the products tracked, a few groups were accounting for the bulk of the increase. Prices in the material and fuel sector surged 9.7 percent for the month, while those of wholesale tobacco and alcohol were 2.4 percent higher.
UK Visible Trade Balance (British pounds) (JUL) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: -6.200 Billion
Previous: -6.436 Billion
Outlook: The UK trade balance in the month of July could narrow to a NZ$6.100 billion as a result of export growth and a contraction in imports for a second consecutive month. A pickup in Euro-zone demand for UK products could be the primary driver behind an improvement in the trade balance. However, the continued weaker-than-expected trade data in recent months highlights the economy’s struggle to benefit from buoyant global demand in general.
Previous: The goods’ trade shortfall tightened less than the market had projected in June to a 6.463 billion deficit from a revised 6.980 billion in May. Exports actually fell 1.2 percent in June, while imports backed off 2.7 percent in the same period. The non-EU trade gap also narrowed in June to 3.150 billion from a 3.600 billion shortfall, while the Euro-zone goods balance worsened to a deficit of 2.530 billion - wider than the previous month’s 2.460 billion. While diminishing demand for imports by UK consumers has helped to limit expansion of the trade account, a struggling manufacturing sector and a strong pound restricts the ability of exports to flourish.
Canadian Housing Starts (AUG) (12:15 GMT; 08:15 EST)
Consensus: 227.6K
Previous: 236.5K
Outlook: Housing starts could slow versus the robust pace seen in the first quarter to 227,600 units in the month of August. Furthermore, the contraction is projected through the third quarter as rising mortgage rates and rapid price growth in the face of affordability issues will likely deter potential buyers. With mortgage rates rising hovering at 4.25 percent and employment trends starting to breakdown, confidence in and the financial feasibility of building a new residence. Although starts, sales and permits could continue to contract from their lofty levels, Canada's housing backdrop is by no means weak, as the housing sector is still on track to remain broadly supportive of consumption through year-end.
Previous: Housing starts surprisingly increased in July as job and personal income growth spurred the sector. With unemployment close to 30 year lows and wages rising at an annual pace of 3.7 percent, consumers are getting a boost and increasing demand for new multifamily houses, as construction of such houses rose to highest level since March. Although running at a steady pace, a slowing of the housing market may be expected in the near-term.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.