EUR/USD â,“Over the past few weeks weâ,"ve mentioned that 1.2456 to 1.2938 is in a 5 wave bullish sequence and the subsequent decline to current levels is completing a third wave (of a correction labeled a-b-c). As we said last week, â,"corrective wave c (beginning at 1.2874) would equal corrective wave a (1.2938-1.2723) at 1.2659. This 1.2660/80 zone is the ideal bottoming area for EURUSD and weâ,"ll look for a rally from there.â, A close above 1.2680 would confirm this idea and hourly oscillators favor a move higher.
USD/JPY â,“ USD/JPY is still contained at the apex of a triangle and faces substantial resistance in the 117.38-48 zone, with a trendline formed from the 2/3 high at 119.38. Currently, the pair is holding at the 78.6% fibo of 119.38 â,“ 108.96 at 117.14. With RSI on the hourly and daily charts over 50, price could probe the resistance area and break higher. However, a drop below the confluence of the supporting trendline at 116.18 and the 38.2% fibo of 113.95 - 117.49 at 116.14 could signal further declines to target the 9/5 low of 115.55.
GBP/USD â,“ As we said on Friday, â,"GBP/USD is approaching a supporting trendline on the daily but upside potential does not seem as great (due to primarily wave count). The trendline is at about 1.8640.â, Former support at 1.8775 (8/18 low) is now resistance and a push above there turns prospects more bullish and could bring about a continuation of the uptrend. However, a close below the supporting trendline could target the 7/25 low of 1.8383.
USD/CHF â,“ The USDCHF is just below resistance from the confluence of the 9/6 high / 78.6% fibo of 1.2595 â,“ 1.2181/ trendline from the 3/10 high of 1.3229 at 1.2506/7. That much resistance argues for a drop in the USDCHF from current levels but a daily close above 1.2507 negates our immediate bearish bias. However, a decline would aim for support at the confluence of the 8/25 high and 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2182 at 1.2423/37.
USD/CAD â,“ USD/CAD made a break higher on Friday and now holds below a resistance trendline from the 8/1 high of 1.1372. With hourly RSI coming down steeply from overbought levels, the pair could aim for support (former resistance) at the 9/5 high of 1.1137. However, a move above the trendline could target the confluence of the 50.0% fibo of 1.456 â,“ 1.1028 and 8/21 high at 1.1242/57.
AUD/USD â,“ Our longer term bearish bias remains but the move down from .7721 looks stretched as it has run into support from a series of daily lows (.7516 to .7523). Combined with the divergent oscillators at the recent low of .7510, signals favor a rally attempt which may be in the works now, but short-term fibo resistance begins at .7549 (38.2% of .7270-.7721) and could limit significant moves higher.
NZD/USD â,“ On Friday we said, â,"Kiwiâ,"s decline may also be coming to end. RSI has rallied above 30 3 times in the last 4 days on the hourly. The first two crosses above 30 were fake outs â,“ perhaps the third one is the real deal. The decline from .6580 is in 3 (a-b-c) wavesâ,¦The 3rd (begins at .6502) nearly equals the first (.6580-.6438). They would equal each other at .6360â,¦One more low below .6372 would create divergence with hourly oscillators and open up the door for a more convincing rally.â, We were correct in our analysis and the kiwi is currently making its way higher, but with substantial resistance at the confluence of the series of highs on 8/17, 8/18, 8/21, low on 9/7, and the 61.8% fibo of .5927 - .6580 at .6422/26.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.