New Zealand Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG) (05:00 GMT; 01:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous:  0.1%

Outlook:  New Zealand’s retail sales are expected to increase 0.3 percent in July from 0.1 percent in June, as a record low jobless rate and rising wages continue to bolster consumer confidence. The jobless rate fell to a record 3.6 percent in the second quarter which in turn caused New Zealanders to spend more. Steadily increasing consumer expenditure, which makes up about 60 percent of the economy, gives signs that economic growth may be stronger than previously expected. However, real sales growth could come in flat as higher energy costs and gasoline continue to plague the retail environment.

Previous:  June retail trade rose a stronger than expected 0.1 percent in the month, while core retail sales excluding vehicle orders fell 0.1 percent. Retail trade volumes were weaker than anticipated which reflected the strength in consumer price inflation over the quarter and provided some offset to the stronger than projected monthly headline print. Annual growth in retail sales continued its moderating trend, while expansion in retail trade volumes eased from 3 percent to 0.9 percent on the year. Breaking down further quarterly volatility, retail trade volumes continue to moderate on an annual basis, which will provide some comfort to the RBNZ as it seeks to slow domestic demand to a pace consistent with a moderation in inflation outcomes.

Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP) (00:30 GMT; 20:30 EST)
Consensus:             n/a
Previous:                -16.2%

Outlook: Though there is no official consensus for Westpac’s monthly consumer confidence survey, a number of publicly available economic indicators will help to elucidate the current condition of optimism among the common Australian. The usual stimulus behind confidence levels, labor health, received contributions from periphery reads since the last survey.  The quarterly report of average weekly wages slowed from 4.5 percent to 3.5 percent in the three months through May.  More recently however the August report of employment change actually bested expectations for the third consecutive month.  Less subjective for consumers however will be cumulative effects of recent rate hikes; which have already begun to eat away at the housing market, the largest source for consumer wealth.  On the other hand, another unordinary event since the August confidence survey has been the dramatic decrease in energy prices.  As gasoline prices decline, Australians are likely to react with immediate optimism about their current situation.

Previous:  Consumer sentiment plunged an unprecedented 16.2 percent in August as every subcomponent of the headline component fell into sharply into the red.  A measure of the perception of family finances a year ago and a year ahead dropped 15.1 percent and 9.9 percent respectively as initial expectations of wage growth exceeded actual returns, even as housing values and employment trends were strongly positive.  Perhaps the most important contraction amongst the various reads however fell to that measuring plans to purchase major household items in the near future.  This read reported a huge 20.3 percent drop as consumers felt the pinch of record gas prices and the most expensive lending rates in recent years.  If these consumer projections come to fruition, the consumer element to Australia’s growth may begin to fall away, forcing the RBA to lower rates in an effort to stimulate spending.

German CPI (MoM) (AUG) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus:                -0.1%
Previous:                     0.4%

Outlook:  Final figures for German CPI will likely line up with flash estimates of a 0.1 percent monthly drop, leaving the annual rate at 1.7 percent for the preceding 12 months. A further breakdown may show lower energy prices as well as seasonal price decreases for clothing and shoes as the main culprits behind the decline on the month. The EU harmonized HICP is likewise forecast at -0.1 percent with the annual rate slightly higher to 1.9 percent. This is marginally below the ECB's upper limit for price stability. Nevertheless, inflation remains high and underlying price pressures are gradually building nonetheless.

Previous:  Consumer prices in Germany rose as vacations became more expensive and a surge in the cost of oil pushed household utility bills even higher as prices in Europe’s largest economy climbed 0.4 percent. A 28 percent increase in the cost of oil in the past year is adding concern to the European Central Bank that workers may begin demanding higher wages—giving rise to overall price levels. To compensate for the whopping 0.4 percent in price appreciation, the ECB is expected to hike rates again at the next policy board meeting.

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL) (8:30GMT; 4:30EST)
Consensus:                   5.5%
Previous:                       5.5%

Outlook:  Previous analyst estimates for July’s unemployment figures were proven incorrect, when in a speech to the Trade Union Congress, British PM Tony Blair revealed that the unemployment fell in July. Given that the result is already known, tomorrow’s ILO Unemployment Rate news release will essentially be a non-event. Regardless, it is helpful to point out that recent signs have shown a healthy trend in UK labor markets. The Recruitment and Employment Federation’s monthly report showed that the placement index is at its highest level in over two years, reaching 59.1 from 57.0 in June. Furthermore the quarterly Manpower report showed its net employment outlook balance rising to 13 percent. Though these bullish signs were not enough to raise median forecasts ahead of today’s news leak, they will certainly play a part in employment expectations rolling forward.

Previous:  June Unemployment increased to 5.5 percent as jobless claims also rose in June to the highest in more than 4 years. Claims jumped to 956,000, the highest since January of 2002, highlighting the fact that jobs are not being created fast enough to support a growing pool of workers that are coming from newly adopted EU countries and a higher participation rate amongst the UK’s minority classes such as women and older workers. Higher fuel costs are prompting many employers to keep a lid on wages and therefore driving the employment atmosphere deeper into the grudges. Employment may be expected to bounce in the near-term, but the push towards improvements could be slower over the longer term.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.