EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD is little changed from yesterday as the pair continues to trade just below the 1.2700 figure.  A 5 wave decline from 1.2875 to 1.2647 favors the downside.  The bearish bias was reinforced today as resistance from the 9/8 and 9/11 highs at 1.2739/40 remained intact.  Bearish signals are plenty on the daily ââ,¬â€œ RSI below 50, a break (if even momentarily) of the supporting trendline from 1.1825, negative MACD, and a daily close below the lower Bollinger band on 9/8.  The daily close below the BB is an unquestionable sign of weakness.  A break below 1.2647 exposes the  7/26 low at 1.2557.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ We still maintain that the break above the trendline from 121.38 suggests that prices are headed to the 78.6% fibo of 121.38-108.96 at 118.70 (also previous congestion area).  USDJPY has come off its 118.14 high and is approaching a support zone from the 38.2% of 115.55-118.14 / 9/12 low at 117.15/36.  A break below the supporting trendline from 108.96 (currently at 116.43 and on chart below) would change the outlook to a bearish one.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable strength came close to the 8/18 low at 1.8775.  Resistance there has held (so far) and the bearish bias remains.  We still may see a poke above yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.8771 high ââ,¬â€œ that would create bearish divergence on the hourly and potentially give way to the next decline.  A break below the 9/11 low at 1.8602 exposes the next bearish target at the 61.8% of 1.8090-1.9144 at 1.8495.  The 10 day SMA crossed below the 20 day SMA yesterday ââ,¬â€œ which also favors bears.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF rallied to the 7/25 high (1.2546) today and has created a double top.  Hourly RSI has declined from below 70 ââ,¬â€œ suggesting that the pair may retrace more strength in the short term.  Initial support is at the 38.2% of 1.2227-1.2548 at 1.2426.  However, yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s commentary regarding the close above the upper Bollinger band on the daily still stands.  The last instance of this was on 6/8 at 1.2317 ââ,¬â€œ the pair rallied over 200 pips in the weeks that followed.  While what happened in the past is no guarantee of the future ââ,¬â€œ daily closes above or below the daily BB tend to see a continuation move.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ We still favor the upside over the longer term but the inability of the pair to break above 1.1226 the last two days suggests that we may see a deeper retracement.  The hourly clearly shows that the pattern since the 1.1226 high is corrective but it looks like price may be headed to the lower end of the tight consolidation near 1.1155 (9/12 low).  A break below there exposes the 61.8% of 1.1040-1.1226 at 1.1112.  The bullish target after 1.1226 is the 8/15 high at 1.1319.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ AUDUSD fell early today to test the trendline from the 3/29 low (.7014) at .7481but has rebounded to above the .7500 figure.  The next support area is at the 200 day SMA at .7467.  We found that last weekââ,¬â"¢s candle took out the previous 4 weekââ,¬â"¢s highs and lows, and then closed below the lowest 4 week low ââ,¬â€œ making a 4 week reversal candle to the downside.  This only other time that this happened (going back 10 years) was during the week that ended May 23, 1997.  That week marked the beginning of a major downtrend.  Short term momentum is up as RSI is increasing on the hourly following bullish divergence at todayââ,¬â"¢s low.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi has retraced 50% of its .6580-.6342 decline to test .6460 today.  The pair looks like it is giving way to weakness again though as hourly oscillators clearly exhibit slowing momentum to the upside.  A push above .6460 probes the 61.8% fibo of the aforementioned decline at .6489.  A break below .6342 exposes the 8/14 low at .6273.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.