EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ EURAUD is at the top of a range that began on 7/24.  The top of the range is at 1.6925 and the bottom at 1.6575.  A continuation of range conditions would lead to lower prices near the bottom of the range.  However, tight Bollinger bands on the daily give scope to a breakout.  Wave structure on the daily would favor a break to the downside (see chart below for details).  A push above the 8/21 high at 1.6954 exposes the 61.8% of 1.7351-1.6572 at 1.7053.  Ultimately, a c wave down could take the pair to 1.6171 which is where the length of wave a (1.7352-1.6571) would equal the length of wave c (beginning at 1.6954 if 1.6954 holds).

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ EURCAD has not budged in the last week.  The daily chart shows a rising wedge from the 1.3495 low on 2/28.  EURCAD has declined from the upper end of the wedge over the last month and is tested the support line yesterday (1.4060).  A break below supports the case for an eventual re-test of 1.3495.  In fact, the longer term picture shows that the pair is in a 5 wave bear sequence from the 2004 high at 1.6374.  The aforementioned wedge is the 4th wave (corrective).  What remains then is a 5th wave to complete the bearish pattern that ultimately makes a new low below 1.3495 (keep in mind that this analysis is longer term).  However, a bounce within the large wedge is likely as the daily shows divergence with CCI (which is also increasing from below -100).  Initial resistance is at the 8/29 high at 1.4289.

EUR/NZD ââ,¬â€œ We have focused on the head and shoulders pattern on EURNZD in recent weeks.  The pattern has played out perfectly. The pair tested the neckline as resistance following the break lower before the continuation move lower.  The move lower likely has a bit more to go before finding significant support.  An ideal support area would be the confluence of the 50% fibo of 1.6320-2.1184 / 161.8% extension of 2.1184-1.9919 from 2.0810 at 1.8759.  Immediate resistance is at the 8/31 low at 1.9488.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.