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Greenback Finally Has a Day
By Kathy Lien | Published  09/15/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Greenback Finally Has a Day

US Dollar
Every dollar has its day, and todayââ,¬â"¢s was the almighty greenback.  Although industrial production figures disappointed the market over, figures were somewhat positive for the session, giving hope to many dollar enthusiasts that the imminent slowdown maybe softer than had been anticipated.  Lending in favor of the optimistic bias was an upbeat manufacturing activity report for the New York region.  Expected to rise to a 13.5 print, the actual figure improved to a 13.8 release compared to a 10.3 witnessed in the month of August.  Complimenting the report was higher than expected consumer confidence.  Reported by the University of Michigan, consumer confidence ticked incrementally higher to spark the positive good vibes, posting an 84.4 figure.  The release was an improvement on the 82.0 seen last month continues to show the resiliency of the US consumer.  Attributed to the increase was a likely boost in confidence as energy costs pulled back slightly in the month. Since the summer peak, crude oil contracts have declined to below the key $65 a barrel level, now trading ever closer to the $60 a barrel mark.  Subsequently, the decline could not be more evident than through the consumer price index released earlier in the session.  Reported in line with earlier estimates, consumer prices rose at a paltry 0.2 percent pace in the month of August, compared to a 0.4 percent jump in the previous month.  Consequently, the figure brought the annualized figure lower to a 3.8 percent pace compared to the 4.1 percent witnessed in July.  The core figure additionally remained lower climbing at a 2.8 percent rate.  So what is to be ascertained through todayââ,¬â"¢s figures?  Simply that the Federal Reserve tightening campaign over the past two years is more than likely over.  However, easing concerns of a harsher reality, the upbeat consumer confidence and manufacturing activity figures are likely a reflection of a slower decline as the worldââ,¬â"¢s largest economy attempts to find a bottom.  Nonetheless, this may not be enough for foreign investors, providing for some dollar downside in the near term.

Euro
European figures were lackluster as traders concentrating on the Euro zone as a whole were privy to inflationary pressures that seem to be well contained.  According to the consumer price index report for the month of August, they may have even declined a bit as the annualized pace dipped to a 2.3 percent reading versus a 2.4 percent increase in the moth prior.  Core figures even declined slightly to a 1.3 percent pace.  Bad for rate hike proponents, the underlying currency have been ill-effected by another piece of data in the overnight. Released by the statistics office, Swiss industrial production figures came in far less than had previously been expected, trumping the current market sentiment and even throwing some questionability as to the future path of rate decisions in the near term.  Expected to rise at a whopping 8.7 percent pace, Swiss IP increased by only 4.3 percent.  Even worse was the fact that the 9.2 percent pace seen in the previous quarter was revised down to 8.4 percent.  Although not widely associated with the European region, the Swiss slowdown may very well signal potential sluggishness in the 12-nation union.  Should the possibility even be considered, the fact may well remain that rate hikes will be deemed unnecessary as the European Central Bank turns to previous expansionary policy in ramping up growth.  Granted the notion is slightly premature, it does spark some concern even in the eyes of the Euro diehard.  The effects are likely to place a lot of emphasis on next weekââ,¬â"¢s ZEW report as traders look to a guiding light through positive sentiment.

British Pound
Although pound sterling data was nonexistent on the session, next weekââ,¬â"¢s schedule proves to be more exciting, and even more pertinent.  Of the two key reports scheduled for next week, the Bank of England minutes will likely take precedence as traders and market participants will look to see the continued directional bias of Governor Mervyn King and subsequent policy makers.  Although the decision has obviously been widely accepted, as always, analysis of the actual rhetoric will be of the utmost importance.  Secondly, the CBI September Industrial trends survey will be key.  With consumer spending already holding positive, according to consecutive retail sales reports, central bankers and traders will want to see optimism in manufacturing as well.  Should the survey purport a better environment, investors will likely see an uptick in the short sterling implieds.

Japanese Yen
Weakness in yen data kept underlying major bulls at bay in the New York session today.  Key reports continued to reflect underground weakness in the worldââ,¬â"¢s second largest economy, bolstering the negative results that have been indicated by both retail trade and consumer confidence surveys.  Aside from positive capital expenditures figures, economic data overall has been rather lackluster in the economy, dampening expectations of a near term rate hike by the Bank of Japan.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s data didnââ,¬â"¢t lend a helping hand as the leading economic index fell far below consensus expectations to print a 27.3 percent.  Even the coincident index fell below the 77.5 consensus.  Both simple compendiums of previous reports, the lower figures may be reflective of an overall pessimistic attitude as consumers continue their hesitant spending and the overall equity benchmark remains under thin water.  Taking the cake, however, was the dip in the tertiary industry index.  Reflective of a shrinking services sector, the survey is likely to contribute to further bearishness next week till attention is focused on the quarterly Tankan survey expected in early October.

Kathy Lien is the Chief Currency Strategist at FXCM.