EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD remains range-bound between 1.2630 and 1.2752.  Range trading that has taken hold of the market since 9/11 is nothing more than a consolidation following the 1.2880-1.2630 decline.  Scope remains for a test of the upper end of the range to complete the correction of weakness to 1.2630 but the larger picture remains bearish due to the break below the 1 month (1.2754) and 3 month (1.2723) SMAs and trendline from 2/27.  If 1.2630 support is given, then focus is on the confluence of the 78.6% of 1.2456-1.2938 / 7/26 low at 1.2557.

USD/JPY â�,�“ We warned bulls yesterday â�,��"of a double top at 118.14/28 (9/12 and 9/18 highs).  Bearish divergence with daily oscillators and CCI declining from above 100 suggests that upside potential is limited.â�,�  The USDJPY has dipped to the 117.00 figure but near term downside potential may be limited as hourly RSI exhibits bullish divergence with price at the 116.97 low.  A break below there targets the 61.8% of 115.55-118.28 at 116.60 â�,�“ an optimal price area for the pair to bottom since 116.47 is the price where corrective wave a (118.28-116.98) would equal corrective wave c (beginning at 117.77).

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable continues to consolidate and has formed a triangle from the 9/14 high at 1.8918.  Price has tested the lower end of the triangle this morning just above the 1.8800 figure, which has held as support and leaves open the possibility for gains towards triangle resistance just below the 9/19 high at 1.8886.  Intraday wave structure looks bearish as a 5 wave decline from 1.8918 to 1.8733 was retraced by a 3 wave corrective rise to the 78.6% fibo of the decline (to 1.8886).  Thus, a 3 wave decline may be upon us.  If this is the case, then a break below 1.8733 could trigger selling to at least 1.8700 (where 1 = 3) and more likely closer to 1.8584.  This is the 161.8% extension of wave 1 (1.8918-1.8733) from the beginning of wave 3 (1.8886).  The structure changes though if 1.8886 fails as resistance.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has crept below the supporting trendline from 1.2227, implying that weakness in the pair going forward.  Hourly studies are moving lower, including RSI which is now below 50.  Fibo support begins at the 38.2% of 1.2227-1.2622 at 1.2472 and extends to the 61.8% at 1.2378.  Daily CCI has turned over from above 100, which favors lower prices.  Still, bulls point to positive 22 day momentum and a break above 1.2622 targets the 61.8% of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732.

USD/CAD â�,�“ We got the breakout higher that we were looking for and a push above 1.1285 would complete a 5 wave advance from 1.1114 and set the stage for a corrective move lower.  Resistance is at the 8/15 high at 1.1319 and the 78.6% of 1.1456-1.1028 at 1.1364.  Longer term bullish prospects were bolstered by the daily close above the 132 day (6 month) SMA yesterday (which is currently at 1.1246 and is now support).  Additional support is the congestion area from 1.1160 to 1.1225.

AUD/USD â�,�“ Yesterdayâ�,��"�s high reversed course at the 38.2% of .7721-.7481 at .7573 as AUDUSD continues to digest losses from .7721.  The hourly clearly shows a rising consolidating channel following the .7721-.7481 decline.  This is a bearish formation and favors an eventual break lower.  The 66 day (3 month) SMA remains strong resistance near .7550 and .7481 remains support.  A break below .7481 exposes the 61.8% of .7270-.7721 at .7442.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwiâ�,��"�s advance has slowed as the pair is nearing a Fibonacci confluence from the 50% of .7468-.5927 and the 61.8% of .7198-.5927 at .6695/.6710.  The 7/8/2005 and 12/23/2005 lows at .6683 and .6700 reinforce the forecasted resistance.  The pair completed its first down day since 9/8 and Kiwi has almost retraced 38.2% of its .6342-.6658 advance.  The 38.2% is at .6538, which is a prior congestion area.  Hourly RSI is nearing oversold, suggesting that downside potential is limited near term.  However, daily CCI has rolled over from above 100 and additional weakness targets the 61.8% of .6342-.6658 at .6463.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.