The indices were unsettled by the news of the coup in Thailand and slumped during the middle part of the session. The S&P 500 cash index fell back intraday to 1312 but despite some concerns about a possible repeat of the Thai baht crisis that emerged in 1997 there was a firm bid in the latter part of the session which contained the fall-out. The index closed with a modest 0.3% retreat on the day to close at 1317. More than most of the recent Fed decisions, traders have reached a consensus that rates will remain unchanged but it will be the inflections in the text of the announcement that will be micro-analyzed for hints about the future direction of policy.
The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) managed to remain above last week's breakout through the 1620 level in yesterday's retreat. We would suggest monitoring the semiconductor stocks closely today as the near term performance of this sector may provide clues as to how much assistance can be relied upon from the techs as the DJIA and S&P 500 approach critical levels around their recent highs.
The oil services index (^OSX) ran into strong headwinds as it reached up beyond the 186 level yesterday and almost reversed Mondayââ,¬â"¢s gains. The 186 level offered support in both June and July but is now providing resistance.
A similar resistance pattern at the previous lows is observable on the chart for Valero (VLO) and we should have mentioned this in our commentary on this stock yesterday.
The FTSE 100 index looks less well supported, on a comparative basis, than the S&P 500. Trendlines have been violated and the index would have to penetrate the 6000 level, which it has noticeably failed to do since early May, to suggest that there is a shot at new multi-year highs.
TRADE OPPORTUNITIES/SETUPS FOR WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 20, 2006
The patterns identified below should be considered as indicative of eventual price direction in forthcoming trading sessions. None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session.
Amgen (AMGN) has been range-bound since April and the stock is now approaching the top of its range. The stock suffered a swift setback just after appearing to break above $70 and now faces a similar challenge again at what might turn out to be a lower high.
Intel (INTC) is at a critical juncture as it struggles to break above $20. The recent pattern resembles the topping pattern that took place in later April/early May and the stock needs a market induced impetus to maintain its position above the important support level of $19.20.
SanDisk (SNDK) may have run into resistance at the $60 level.
Clive Corcoran is the publisher of TradeWithForm.com, which provides daily analysis and commentary on the US stock market. He specializes in market neutral investing and and is currently working on a book about the benefits of trading with long/short strategies, which is scheduled for publication later this year.
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