Swiss Trade Balance (AUG) (06:15 GMT; 02:15 EST)
Consensus:               SFr 0.80B
Previous:                    SFr 1.42B

Outlook:  The Swiss trade surplus is expected to narrow to 0.8 billion francs in the month of August, due to potentially dwindling foreign demand, as importers of Swiss goods felt the effects of higher energy prices and rising interest rates. Meanwhile, Julyââ,¬â"¢s trade balance report was revised lower to 1.37 billion, with exports and imports seeing upward revisions to SFr 14.61 billion and SFr 13.24 billion, respectively. Stronger import growth could diminish the August surplus, as robust consumer spending drives up demand for foreign goods. Furthermore, the value of imports may rise due to higher energy prices in the first half of the month, though the latter half was marked with the dramatic beginning of easing crude and other petroleum product prices. Overall, however, the trade balance is anticipated to remain strong and underpin solid economic growth in Switzerland.

Previous:  The trade balance in Switzerland expanded to SFr 1.42 billion in July from SFr 0.86 billion the month prior as a result of growing demand from other European countries, which account for roughly 60 percent of Swiss exports. A breakdown of the data shows that exports posted at SFr 14.58 billion, exceeding imports of SFr 13.2 billion. German consumption of Swiss goods has jumped 14 percent from a year ago, and OPEC nations, which have benefited from rising oil prices, bought 28 percent more from the same month in 2005. The jump in foreign demand has lent strength to the Swiss economy, as manufacturers have boosted output and subsequently ramped up the hiring trends. A tighter labor market, which could lead to increased consumer spending, may actually hurt the trade balance figure in coming months, however, as wealthier Swiss might support strong import numbers.

UK CBI Industrial Trends (SEP) (10:00 GMT; 06:00 EST)
                           (Total Orders)    (Export Orders)
Consensus:              -7                          -5
Previous:                  -8                          -6

Outlook:  The headline CBI Industrial Trends reading for the month of September is anticipated to improve to a negative 7 read from negative 8 the month prior. The rise would be in line with gains in orders in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. Future expansion may be limited, though, as domestic and export demand has been fragile at best. However, the British Chamber of Commerceââ,¬â"¢s second quarter economic survey showed that firms were more upbeat about future profitability and turnover, even though the price outlook moderated, indicating the potential for steady growth throughout the second half of 2006.

Previous:  August CBI industrial trends survey came in better than expected, with the headline index rising to negative 8 from negative 11 in July, the highest reading since December 2004 and much better than estimates of a negative 10 print. Meanwhile, export orders remained stable at negative 6. A breakdown of the survey data also showed that output expectations over the next 3 months fell back to 11 from 14 in July. Furthermore, domestic price expectations rose to 13 from 6 in July, hitting its highest level since January 2005 and fueling continued inflation concerns. Overall, the CBI data highlights that the domestic industrial sector appears to be on track for improvement, and could continue to serve as a positive contribution to GDP in the months going forward.

Canadian Retail Sales (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                        (Headline)        (Ex Autos)
Consensus:          0.8%                 0.5%
Previous:             -0.2%                 0.1%

Outlook:  The consensus for Julyââ,¬â"¢s retail sales report has progressively risen to 0.8 percent increase over the past few days as a strong wholesales report has joined other positive reads feeding into expectations.  Predictions of the monthââ,¬â"¢s rise initially found its support from a new vehicle sales report for the same month.  According to the government read, car sales jumped 3.0 percent, the most since November of last year, despite near record gasoline prices and dear financing rates.  This read provided the initial belief that Canadian consumer spending was finding greater support from wages and employment to offset the detriment dealt by energy and lending. Undoubtedly the greater support behind a better retail figure outlook in July was the wholesale number, which more than tripled the consensus with 2.1 percent growth.  Record sales of C$42.4 billion at the wholesaler level grew on the account of an 8 percent jump in auto purchases and a 2.8 percent increase in machinery and electronics.  If July retail sales aligns itself with the surprise growth in wholesale and auto purchases, the GDP figure for the month could return back into positive growth.

Previous:  Canadian retail sales contracted for the second month in June with a 0.2 percent drop the product of weak vehicle and department store purchases.  Though the previous two months reported disappointing contractions, the overall quarter still performed well with a 2.3 percent increase versus a 2.4 percent rate in the first three months of the year. Specifically for the June however, the major detriment to the headline number was a 1.4 percent drop in car sales to C$5.92 billion.  The retail number stripped of the effects of dealer receipts actually grew 0.1 percent.  While a slight increase was manageable under such conditions, there were still major weights in the wings.  The general merchandise component was another detractor with its own 1.4 percent decline.

US Leading Indicators (AUG) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:           -0.2%
Previous:                -0.1%

Outlook:  The Leading Indicators Index, used to forecast growth in the coming 3 to 6 months, is expected to contract for the second consecutive month in July by 0.2 percent.  Though not all of the 10 components contributing to the index are not known, those that are have already shown their colors.  The most foreboding of the August numbers so far was the housing segment.  A building permits sub-gauge is likely to take the lead of its housing starts cousin which fell for the seventh consecutive month in August, a feat not accomplished since 1986.   Elsewhere initial jobless claims were sending a disappointing message for the month.  First-time filings for unemployment averaged 318,000 in August, versus 312,500 for the previous month.  Other known indicators arenââ,¬â"¢t as bad.  For equities, the S&P 500 Index reinitiated its upward momentum last month.  Also, though it does not directly match up to the orders figure in the indicator, retail sales recently reported stable growth of 0.2 percent following the 1.4 percent jump the month before.  If this index of indicators progressively trends into negative territory, fears of a swifter decline in the economy could begin to worry traders in the currency market.

Previous:  Julyââ,¬â"¢s Leading Indicators index fell 0.1 percent in July, following a 0.1 percent advance in just the month before.  The modest monthly change belies the 1.4 percent annual drop in the previous six months, the worst this indicator has seen since February of 2001.  Components were evenly split, with five sub-gauges rising and five declining.  Even the severity of most of the changes were largely offset.  Slight drops in jobless claims, capital goods orders, the money supply and interest rate spreads were buffered by consumer goods orders, delivery time, stocks and consumer sentiment.  The big moves came on the part of the housing market and average workweek.  Julyââ,¬â"¢s building permits component contracted 0.18 percent, for the 6th consecutive decline in the read.  On the other side of the equation, the average workweek doubled its usual 0.6 percent increase.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.